OAKMONT, Pa. – Playing in the final group on a humid afternoon outside Pittsburgh, both Sam Burns and J.J. Spaun acquitted themselves well on a major stage. But they’ll still have company among the contenders eyeing major glory Sunday at the U.S. Open.

Burns did enough to maintain his one-shot lead heading into the final round, but now instead of Spaun he’ll be joined by Adam Scott in the final pairing. Viktor Hovland is the only other player under par, 1 under and three shots off the lead, while Scott and Spaun both trail by one.

Throw in Mexico’s Carlos Ortiz, who tied Scott for the round of the day with a 67 to move to even, and it’s a five-way group enjoying this particular trend: Each of the last 26 U.S. Open champions started the final round within four shots of the lead.

Two more players, Tyrrell Hatton and Thriston Lawrence, are buoyed by a similar trend that 32 of the last 34 winners in this event have been T6 or better entering the final round.

With pre-tournament betting favorite Scottie Scheffler still on the radar (at least in the eyes of oddsmakers) as he sits eight shots off the pace, there’s a total of eight players who will enter the final round with odds below 100/1 according to oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s rank them – not necessarily in odds order, but based on a combination of betting value and likelihood that they’ll lift the trophy on Sunday.

Viktor Hovland (1 under, +650): I’ve tried to tell you that Hovland is winning this tournament, even as his betting prices dipped, so let this be another reminder. The Norwegian has found a little magic around the greens at Oakmont, somehow turning his biggest weakness into a strength. Hovland sits third in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green and third in Greens in Regulation, very close to the potent combo that Dustin Johnson utilized en route to winning here nine years ago. Hovland has perhaps the highest ceiling of anyone on the leaderboard, and while his driver drifted in the third round his approach play and scrambling more than made up for it.

It doesn’t always come together for Hovland, but it seems to be this week – and a major breakthrough could be around the corner.

Adam Scott (3 under, +300): Scott couldn’t hide his cheshire cat grin about his 54-hole position: in the final pairing, with Burns in his sights, but not burdened with the overnight lead. The Aussie is 12 years removed from his Masters triumph and at age 44 would be the second-oldest U.S. Open champion, behind only Hale Irwin in 1990. Scott’s putter is always his biggest question mark, especially as the pressure mounts, but he’s been reliable this week (26th in SG: Putting). Second off the tee, seventh in approach, he’s the best ball-striker of the contenders.

Sam Burns (4 under, +170): Burns held serve in the third round, but an even bigger challenge awaits. Leads of exactly one shot have only turned into major victories 42 percent of the time in majors over the last 40 years. Burns himself is just 1-for-5 with 54-hole leads on TOUR, and he hasn’t won in two years. He’s played remarkably well this week, and his second-round 65 remains the best effort from any player. But

J.J. Spaun (3 under, +350): How much did Spaun learn from his playoff loss to Rory McIlroy at THE PLAYERS? He’s three years removed from his first and only win on TOUR, but he’s clearly in the midst of a renaissance at age 34. Spaun had the tournament on his putter blade at TPC Sawgrass, and he didn’t flinch in the third round – hitting 15 of 18 greens in regulation, including a stretch of 14 in a row at one point. A closing bogey cost him a share of the lead, and a spot in the final pairing, and it remains to be seen if he’s able to replicate similar ball-striking – or if he should have capitalized more on his accurate play in the third round.

Tyrrell Hatton (1 over, +2200): Hatton’s demeanor wouldn’t seem like a fit for Oakmont, but as he stated in his post-round remarks, this is the type of course that drives everyone a little crazy – which brings the field to how he feels at nearly any venue. The Englishman climbed the standings with a 2-under 68 in the third round, but his major record remains somewhat scant: just one top-10 since 2020, and no top-20s in the U.S. Open since a T6 finish in 2018.

Thriston Lawrence (1 over, +8000): Lawrence came out of nowhere last year at Royal Troon to finish T4, and now he’s showing himself to be something of a major performer. Still, he faces a five-shot deficit and his even-par 70 Saturday tied for the worst score of anyone still inside the top 10. Perhaps a more appropriate target would be a top-4 finish, like the one he snagged last summer in Scotland and one that would ensure he makes a return trip to Augusta National next spring.

Scottie Scheffler (4 over, +5500): He’s not going to do it – right? Scheffler is typically a front-runner when he wins majors, and he hasn’t been able to get much of anything going this week at Oakmont. An eight-shot deficit would eclipse even the great comeback here of Johnny Miller in 1973, who was six shots down before firing his famed 63.

Carlos Ortiz (Even, +2000): Ortiz vaulted up the leaderboard with a sizzling third round, reaching 4 under on the day through 14 holes. Still, this is wildly uncharted territory for the Mexico native: in nine prior starts in majors he has made only two cuts, never finishing better than T52 at the 2019 U.S. Open. He’s leading the field in SG: Approach but will likely have a tough time keeping up that pace in the pressures of the final round.