OAKMONT, Pa. – Under-par scores are officially an endangered species at the 125th U.S. Open.

Another day of difficult conditions battered the field at Oakmont Country Club, and the number of players still left standing in red figures has dwindled to three. Sam Burns leads after a scintillating 65, and he’ll tee off in the final group alongside first-round leader J.J. Spaun. Spaun trails by a shot at 2 under, followed by Viktor Hovland – and that’s where the red figures end.

Although rains reached Oakmont late Friday night and suspended second-round play, with more rain expected in the forecast over the weekend, the carnage has only just begun for the players making it past the 36-hole cut. Burns started the day six shots back and moved to the top of the pile in a single afternoon – with similarly volatile swings in store for the next two days on a demanding layout.

Burns is in search of his first major title, and one week after losing a playoff in Canada he’ll begin the third round as both the leader and the new betting favorite.

Updated odds to win U.S. Open (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +330: Sam Burns
• +550: Viktor Hovland
• +700: J.J. Spaun
• +800: Scottie Scheffler
• +1100: Ben Griffin
• +1600: Adam Scott
• +2200: Brooks Koepka
• +2500: Jon Rahm
• +2800: Russell Henley

My focus for in-play wagers remains on the ball-strikers, but we have another factor to consider: the weather. Second-round play was halted with a few groups still on the course Friday night because of storms, and forecasts provided by tournament officials indicate more rain is on the way.

“Overall the models continue to indicate that Saturday has the highest probability of seeing shower and thunderstorm activity,” the forecast read. “Uncertainty remains regarding sshower and storm coverage for Sunday, with the models struggling to get a handle on the timing and exact movement of the low-pressure system.”

Rain estimates for Saturday range from 0.10-0.25 inches, but even a little bit of moisture could be enough to take a little of the fire out of Oakmont, which had started to border on crispy mid-day Friday.

The moisture will be a mixed bag for players, as a long course gets longer but the (softer) fairways also become easier to hit. I’m still turning my attention to those who have demonstrated the best control tee-to-green – and those that I believe could be ready for the moment that lies ahead.

Viktor Hovland to win (+550)

Were you listening last night when I suggested getting on Hovland at +3500? If not, there’s still time. Hovland is gaining strokes tee-to-green after rounds of 71-68, but his often-spotty short game has shown up in a big way. Believe it or not, he’s leading the field in SG: Around the Green – and after wallowing near the bottom of the pack in SG: Putting in the opening round, he was 30th on the greens in Round 2.

Hovland is often a tough read. Even when he won the Valspar Championship in March, he was down on the game. He’s surprisingly optimistic at the halfway point, but more than anything I’m buying into him as a high-ceiling option. I’m not fully convinced that he can keep up this momentum, particularly around the greens, but I think he has the biggest potential if it comes to fruition – as it nearly has over the last couple of years at the PGA Championship.

Adam Scott to win (+1600)

How much would the paradigm shift on our perception of Scott, should he secure a second major title approaching his 45th birthday? The Aussie’s ball-striking bona fides are never in doubt, and this week they’re on full display: second in SG: Off-the-Tee, seventh in SG: Around-the-Green.

The putter is always a question mark for Scott, but he’s actually gaining strokes on the field on the greens through 36 holes. More than anything, though, I’m a believer in Scott’s temperament: the veteran will be able to roll with the punches that Oakmont is sure to deliver.

Speaking to Golfbet after the opening round, Scott estimated that 4 over might be the winning score if Oakmont remained firm. The overnight rains will take a bit of the edge off that estimate, but entering the weekend even there’s no denying that he’s in prime position.

Xander Schauffele Top-20 finish (+140)

At 6 over through 36 holes, it’s unlikely that Schauffele will win. But that doesn’t mean he’ll fade over the weekend.

Schauffele’s second-round 74 was enough to make the cut, his TOUR-leading 66th straight made cut dating back to the 2022 Masters. His ball-striking has been an issue, as his balky driver has cooperated at times but his approach play has sagged.

Still, he has finished T14 or better in every U.S. Open start and we’ve seen instances this year – namely at Bay Hill and Muirfield Village – where he barely scraped past the cut line but then picked up ground over the weekend.

No one in the field better matches the mindset needed at the U.S. Open, and the longer a tournament goes the more he tends to rise up the standings. It’s the same phenomenon that results in Scheffler having the fourth-shortest odds despite trailing by seven shots, and equally steep prices for top-5 and top-10 markets.

Schauffele will start the third round outside the top 40, but if trends are any indication, being able to get plus money on him finishing the week inside the top 20 feels like a steal.