Draws and Fades: Assessing chase pack behind Wyndham Clark at Shinnecock

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. — A lot can happen on the weekend at a U.S. Open, especially at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.

Birdies are dearly sought. Doubles are well within reach. The turbulent nature of leaderboard dynamics can get kicked into overdrive. The last time this tournament was held here, Dustin Johnson led by four shots after 36 holes. He had relinquished that advantage within 18 holes and eventually finished T10.

All this to say that, yes, Wyndham Clark has looked impressive through two rounds while building a similar cushion. Like Johnson, he’s a recent U.S. Open champion who knows how to lift this trophy. He’s playing well, having just captured a PGA TOUR title last month, and he deserves to be priced in such a way that a “Clark or the field?” discussion has some actual merit.

But this thing is far from over.

Updated odds to win the U.S. Open (via DraftKings Sportsbook):

• +180: Wyndham Clark (7 under)
• +610: Xander Schauffele (3 under)
• +660: Matt Fitzpatrick (3 under)
• +920: Scottie Scheffler (even)
• +1375: Collin Morikawa (2 under)
• +1500: Rory McIlroy (even)

Each of the six players closest to Clark on the odds board has won a major before, and this six-pack of marquee names has combined for an impressive 15 majors. The chase back bears bona fides, even if there are some question marks.

Can Schauffele, whose high floor in this event goes without saying, find an extra gear? Can Scheffler go on the type of six-hole run that nearly all of the other contenders have enjoyed to jolt up the leaderboard? Can Morikawa trust his nagging back, and can McIlroy get back in gear after his outright chances took a serious hit over the final nine holes Friday afternoon?

Of all the players behind Clark, the one I have the fewest questions about is Fitzpatrick. He’s in a great position and will enjoy a final-pairing tee time with Clark in the third round. I’d give him an edge over Schauffele for second favorite, admittedly influenced by my pre-tournament selection of the Englishman. Even from a blank-slate perspective, there’s a lot to like about a player who is suddenly winning in bunches, enjoys a difficult challenge and knows what it takes to win this particular event.

There’s a good chance that Clark will find a way to convert this four-shot cushion, despite the unpredictability, but I’d tap Fitzpatrick as his top challenger at the halfway point.

Further down the board, though, two prop bet options stand out heading into the third round:

Justin Thomas, Top 5 finish with ties (+250)

Thomas is quietly in the mix, sitting among a tie for seventh at 1-under. I like his major pedigree, with a pair of PGA Championships to his name, but I also like his consistent Strokes Gained profile through 36 holes.

Thomas isn’t doing one thing great, but he’s doing a lot of things really well. He’ll need all 14 clubs cooperating over the weekend on a difficult test, but he has the necessary creativity with shot shapes and the deft touch on and around the greens to handle the challenge.

I’m not sure that Thomas will find a way into the winner’s circle, with Clark in such great form and with so many big names on the leaderboard. But I like his chances to improve upon his current T7 position by the end of the week.

Sungjae Im, Top Korean (+375)

This is now a two-way market between Im and Tom Kim, with Kim five shots clear heading into the weekend. It’s a steep price for a head-to-head matchup for a reason. But I’m not buying into Kim’s ascendancy on Friday afternoon, as I think he’ll come back to the pack. Kim is 111th on TOUR this season in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 114th in SG: Putting. Through two rounds at Shinnecock Hills, he’s 28th and 17th, respectively.

That creates some upside on the other end of this matchup, as Im played well to ensure he’s around for the weekend. A 2-under 68 brought him to 2-over par for the week, and he bounced back in a big way from some woeful SG: Approach numbers in his opening round. Im will need Kim to come back to the pack to have a chance in this two-man market, but I think there’s a good chance it’ll happen – and I like the price backing Im on the chance that it does.