Draws & Fades: Wyndham Clark leads, but chase pack within reach at U.S. Open

SOUTHAMPTON, N.Y. – The 126th U.S. Open is underway and no, your eyes are not playing tricks on you: that’s a leaderboard chock full of red figures at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club.

USGA officials braced for impact given a weather forecast that called for wind gusts upward of 30 MPH during afternoon play. Instead, the dominant weather element on Thursday was fog – delaying early-morning play by exactly two hours. While the winds were steady for the afternoon side of the draw, the gusty conditions never materialized. As a result, some of the course setup precautions, including greens running at 10.5 instead of 11.5 or 12, allowed the world’s best to put up a few birdies on a venue that has only seen three players total finish the week under par in five editions of the U.S. Open.

Topping the board when play was halted by darkness was former winner Wyndham Clark, who conquered Los Angeles Country Club to win this event three years ago. Clark rolled off a flurry of birdies and an eagle on the par-5 fifth to reach 6-under and lead by four shots. When play resumes Friday morning, he’ll have a chance to match the course record of 7-under 63 set by Tommy Fleetwood back in 2018.

Updated odds to win the U.S. Open (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

• +330: Wyndham Clark
• +560: Jon Rahm
• +750: Rory McIlroy
• +760: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +1300: Scottie Scheffler
• +1400: Bryson DeChambeau
• +1650: Ludvig Åberg

Here’s a look at the plays I’m eyeing heading into the second day, with opening-round play set to resume at 6:35 a.m. ET:

Rory McIlroy to win (+750)

Of the favorites near the top of the board, I like Fitzpatrick the most – but that’s in large part because he was my pre-tournament pick, so I’m not looking to double down. Instead I’m eyeing McIlroy, who might have the highest possible price after a quality round given how the pieces fell into place.

McIlroy was at one point the outright betting favorite, racing past Scheffler while reaching 3-under before closing his round with a pair of bogeys. It took the shine off of what was an otherwise strong performance, whereas a birdie-birdie finish might look a lot different despite arriving at the same score.

McIlroy is also a beneficiary of Clark’s efforts to zoom past the field before dusk. There’s a long way to go in this event, and no one will be immune from making mistakes. Wyndham Clark isn’t going to run away and hide, particularly if the wind (eventually) kicks up. But McIlroy’s price would be much lower if Clark was more within reach, and I’d rather bet on the variance that could bring the overnight leader back to earth. McIlroy did everything he needed to in the opener, and now in the mix after the opening round of the U.S. Open for the fourth time in the last five years, I’d be surprised if he wasn’t live in the outright market come Sunday.

Sahith Theegala Top-20 finish (+480)

Theegala is well off the pace after a 2-over 72, but he boasts the exact type of stat profile that I’d look to back with a live market like this. He struck the ball beautifully in the opener, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, and he was second in SG: Around the Green. The culprit was clear: an ice-cold putter that cost him nearly four shots and ranked him 150th out of 156 players.

It’s unlikely that Theegala will putt that poorly again on Friday, and if he makes the cut I’m bullish that the iron play he displayed through his first 18 holes will lift him up the leaderboard on a course where iron play is often the biggest differentiator. Theegala has finished T27 and T32 in his last two U.S. Open starts, so he’ll have the mental fortitude to handle the changing conditions over the weekend should the putter defrost.