Xander Schauffele and Max Greyserman share the 54-hole lead at the Baycurrent Classic, setting the stage for a Sunday showdown at Yokohama Country Club.

Unlike Friday’s calm conditions, Saturday brought steady rain and swirling winds that demand patience from everyone in the field. Early starters took advantage of the calmer starting conditions and a front nine that offered more scoring opportunities than the back, giving many golfers a chance to make a charge on Moving Day. Meanwhile, a few near the top found themselves grinding to keep pace.

Schauffele delivered one of the best rounds of the day. His 4-under 67 erased Greyserman’s four-shot lead. Given the conditions and circumstances, his 67 was one to remember. Like many others, he battled the elements. Whether that meant hitting through the trees or hitting great approaches from fairway bunkers, his irons were dialed in.

The two now sit tied at 12-under, three shots clear of a crowded pack of chasers at 9-under and two more at 8-under – setting up for what promises to be an electric final round.

A look at the leaders:

Xander Schauffele (+120 at FanDuel Sportsbook) and Max Greyserman (+280)

Starting the day four shots behind Greyserman, Schauffele was at +400 to win, but it didn’t take long for that number to shorten. For the first time in a while, he had that look again – focused, confident and in control of his swing.

Schauffele turned a good second-round tee-to-green into a great one in the third, improving from +3.15 to +4.52 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.

After a few early birdies on the front and Greyserman’s stumble with a double bogey on the par-4 seventh, the lead was gone, and the two were tied.

It’s felt like some time since Schauffele had seriously been in contention, but he now holds his 10th career 54-hole lead or co-lead on the PGA TOUR. He’s converted three of his previous nine chances – the most recent coming at the 2024 PGA Championship.

A win this week would mark Schauffele’s first since The Open Championship in 2024. Honestly, it’s easy to side with the oddsmakers on this one. Trusting a nine-time PGA TOUR winner, competing in the country his family hails from, almost feels like cheating.

Schauffele has more victories on Japanese soil (one) than Greyserman has in his career, but experience alone won’t get him there.

Through three rounds, Schauffele holds a slight edge in total strokes gained (+3.91 to +367), but the real separation comes from tee-to-green, where he’s outperformed Greyserman by 1.26 strokes.

Getting hot with the putter can win a tournament, but how they get to the green matters just as much, if not more. Even with limited data, it feels like that’s the kind of advantage that will hold up over four rounds at Yokohama Country Club.

Twelve of the top 15 golfers this week have gained at least +1.5 strokes tee-to-green. Among that group, only two golfers have gained more than +0.5 strokes putting, while eight have been neutral or even lost strokes with the flatstick.

That doesn’t entirely discount Greyserman’s' hot putter; it’s been his key weapon all week, but it does suggest it may play a smaller role in the final round if Schauffele can keep pace on the greens.

The pressure, however, will rest squarely on Greyserman’s shoulders. He’s chasing his maiden PGA TOUR victory and tries to become the 15th first-time winner on TOUR this season.

The best from the rest

Among the seven golfers within seven shots of the lead, few inspire much betting confidence heading into Sunday.

Defending champion Nico Echavarria sits three back at +2200 – intriguing, but his driver has let him down. He’s lost strokes off the tee in two of the first three rounds, including a rough -3.39 strokes in Round 2. Without a reliable driver, it’s hard to see him repeating.

Garrick Higgo, meanwhile, checks in at +1600. After finishing runner-up at the Sanderson Farms Championship and notching consecutive top 10s, he’s trending in the right direction. A hot start could easily thrust him back into contention.

Still, the most compelling option from that group is Michael Thorbjornsen at +1400. His game fits Yokohama Country Club perfectly. He ranks sixth in the field in Driving Distance and pairs that length with great accuracy. Over his last 36 measured rounds, he’s inside the top 10 in SG: Tee-to-Green.

While Thorbjornsen isn’t a strong putter on bentgrass, he started the week gaining +2.27 strokes putting in Round 1. More impressively, he was 5-under in Round 3, despite losing nearly a stroke on the greens – thanks to a blistering +4.73 strokes gained on approach and +6.20 tee-to-green.

If his irons stay hot on Sunday, he could potentially go low and demand that Schauffele or Greyserman match.

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