It took Ben Griffin 54 holes to make his first bogey, and it came on the final hole Saturday. The relatively benign par-5 18th at Silverado Resort effectively halted his momentum, with several star-studded chasers lined up and within striking distance in Napa, California, at the Procore Championship.

The pressure to play mistake-free golf on Sunday will be palpable given the emergence of world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who delivered a scorching 8-under 64 despite a double-bogey on the 14th hole.

“I looked at the leaderboard a couple times and saw his name, and you always know he’s coming at some point,” said Griffin post round on Scheffler’s charge.

Griffin has looked up to the task so far, but we’ve seen how Scheffler’s relentless jabs and pressure can wear opponents down on Sundays. Scheffler made 10 birdies on Saturday, including two on his final two holes, to build momentum for another potential ceremonial family photo on the 18th green after the final round.

He’ll also need to contend with amateur Jackson Koivun, who’s thrust himself into the mix with freewheeling aggression and precision. Koivun leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach after arriving in Napa on cloud nine from hoisting the Walker Cup last weekend down the Pacific coast.

South African Garrick Higgo made his move up the leaderboard with a 6-under 66. He’s lurking in a dangerous position, just three shots back and wielding one of the hottest putters in the field.

All odds sourced via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Updated odds to win Procore

• +140: Ben Griffin (-16)
• +150: Scottie Scheffler (-14)
• +350: Jackson Koivun (a) (-15)
• +2000: Garrick Higgo (-13)
• +20000: Emiliano Grillo (-10)

The odds board points to a four-horse race on Sunday, with a big gap between Higgo and a four-way tie at 10-under. Here are some value-driven plays ahead of the final round:

Outrights

Scottie Scheffler (+150)

This has become Scheffler’s natural habitat. Lurking in contention, compounding form, building momentum and ready to strike. Nobody revs the engine for a Sunday drag race on the PGA TOUR like Scheffler, who always seems to find another gear on the weekend.

The perplexing late-afternoon Poa annua tends to level the playing field on the greens, so the winner is likely to be determined by tee-to-green play. When analyzing all final rounds in 2025, Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total, Ball Striking, Approach and Tee-to-Green. The gap between him and the next best is a chasm, and his competitors know it.

Waiting 54 holes to grab Scheffler at +150 might not feel provocative, but it’s only a slight discount from his pre-tournament number (+210), and the goal is to find the winner. He’s in the penultimate pairing, and relentless inside the ropes on Sundays. Expect him to arrive at Silverado tomorrow with his sights set on win No. 6 of 2025. Betting against him feels reckless.

Scheffler is inevitable. Take the plus-money price while you still can.

Top-10 Finish

Mark Hubbard (+340)

I’m targeting a secondary market to turn a profit with Hubbard, who appears poised to deliver value on Sunday. This tournament received an influx of high-profile players this week, but Hubbard is a Napa regular with three finishes of T21 or better in the last four years here.

His 2-under 70 on Saturday was workmanlike, but he left a couple of birdies on the course. Hubbard currently sits T17 at 7-under headed into Sunday and will need to take care of the par 5s in the final round, which has been a strength. He ranks second best in the field in par-5 scoring over the last 40 rounds, a critical stat to unlocking a low round at Silverado.

This fall stretch is huge for players like Hubbard trying to stockpile FedExCup points. At his last start, the Wyndham Championship, he fired a sizzling 63, the low round of the day, to finish T3.

I’ll gladly take another round like that this week. Hubbard can go low when it counts, and +340 to find himself within the top 10 (including ties) is too juicy to ignore.

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