It felt like the same old script on Thursday afternoon at the BMW Championship: The PGA TOUR’s best all tee it up, and Scottie Scheffler ends the day perched at the top of the leaderboard.

Then Robert MacIntyre shattered the familiar narrative.

The Scot ripped a back-nine 29, rolling in six straight birdies to close and post an 8-under 62 at a renovated Caves Valley Golf Course that looked far stingier in the morning than it did when MacIntyre was in full flight. After a two-hour weather delay softened the grounds, MacIntyre turned the damp Maryland turf into a launchpad and built a three-shot cushion over Tommy Fleetwood to close the day.

The reworked Caves Valley appears to be a response to the 27-under track meet from 2021, but MacIntyre’s card said otherwise.

For bettors, his eruption, plus Scheffler’s steady 66 creates a split-screen board: One red-hot leader at a playable number, and the world No. 1 still sitting as the rightful chalk. But there are a few different paths we can take now as we examine the odds board.

Odds to win BMW Championship after Round 1 per FanDuel Sportsbook

• Scottie Scheffler (-4) +130
• Robert MacIntyre (-8) +400
• Tommy Fleetwood (-5) +600
• Ludvig Åberg (-2) +2000
• Rory McIlroy (E) +2000
• Ben Griffin (-3) +2200
• Viktor Hovland (-3) +2200
• Rickie Fowler (-3) +3300

Scheffler at +130 is the market’s way of saying “trust the baseline.” Four back of MacIntyre, one behind Tommy Fleetwood, he still rates as the most likely winner over 72 holes, especially if the course continues to demand precision. If you prefer momentum over model, MacIntyre at +400 offers room for a partial hedge. He was clinical with the irons and fearless with pace on softer greens. Just know the lead will be tested when conditions normalize.

Draws

Viktor Hovland (+2200)

Hovland’s opening 67 was one of the day’s cleanest efforts, and it came with the putter stuck in neutral. The Norwegian lost more than a stroke on the greens and still shot 3 under. That’s a bullish tell if the flatstick rounds into shape, we could see some serious fireworks. The former BMW and FedExCup winner is also working through a fresh swing sensation that clicked on Thursday.

“I don’t want to go too into it,” Hovland said after his round. “But basically, like in transition, I’ve been tilting, like, my side bend, and I just don’t turn my chest as much as I used to.”

Ever the tinkerer, Hovland looks volatile in the best way. When the new feel holds, he can close, just like we saw earlier this year at the Valspar Championship. At +2200, that ceiling is worth a nibble.

Tommy Fleetwood Top 5 Finish (-155)

If you love Fleetwood’s form but dread riding the repeated trauma of watching him chase win No. 1 on the PGA TOUR, the top-five market is the hedge against heartbreak. His 65, good for solo second, had all the hallmarks. Elite approach play (more than 2.5 shots gained on approach) and touch around the greens (No. 1 in SG: Around the Green). The highlight was a laser from 208 yards out of a fairway bunker at No. 12 that set up birdie.

With the short game as a safety net and the irons dialed, a weekend fade looks less likely. With not having to even consider the thought of Fleetwood holding the trophy, -155 becomes very workable for one of the objectively best players in the world right now.

Fade

Ludvig Åberg (+2000)

Åberg’s trajectory is pointing up after T9 at the FedEx St. Jude and a T8 at the Genesis Scottish Open, but this field and venue may demand more than he showed Thursday. He gained just 0.5 strokes on approach and slightly lost with the putter (-0.3). Against this cast of heavy hitters, that combo typically lands you mid-pack unless the irons spike.

At a tight number relative to his current form, pass for now.