Draws & Fades: As rain turns to sunny skies in Texas, can anyone keep pace with Scottie Scheffler?

Through two days of THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, there have been two storylines: Scottie Scheffler and the weather.

One of them is set to subside as the (delayed) event heads into the weekend. What remains to be seen is if anyone can catch the world’s best player as he looks for his first win of 2025.

Thunderstorms rolled through the Dallas area Friday, leading tournament officials to suspend play at 10:46 a.m. ET because of lightning. The course at TPC Craig Ranch was already waterlogged after heavy rains fell on Wednesday, and as storms continued throughout the day play did not resume for more than six hours.

When play resumed, Scheffler only increased his advantage. After teeing off as a +280 pre-tournament favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook, Scheffler tipped those odds even more in his favor with an opening-round 61. Starting the second round with eight straight pars seemingly gave the rest of the field a chance, but he eagled his final hole before the delay and then birdied six of nine after play resumed.

A whopping -230 favorite when the rain delay reached McKinney, Scheffler is now a -1200 overnight favorite while leading by six – the equivalent of a moneyline on a 16-point favorite in an NFL game.

Updated odds to win THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• -1200: Scottie Scheffler
• +4500: Sam Stevens
• +8000: Michael Thorbjornsen
• +10000: Rasmus Højgaard, Ricky Castillo
• +12000: Stephan Jaeger

It’s a wild dynamic, one that we’ve rarely, if ever, seen before with more than 36 holes left for many players: no one beyond Scheffler is shorter than 45-to-1 odds, and only three players are currently listed below 100-to-1.

The chances of anyone catching Scheffler, given his strong play, six-shot cushion and 124 total through 36 holes, which was one shot off the all-time TOUR record, are slim. But the one thing that could help the chase pack is that the stormy weather that plagued the tournament over the first two days is set to dissipate.

“Cooler and drier air will settle over North Texas Saturday and Sunday as high pressure builds into the region,” read the TOUR’s official forecast on Friday. “Mostly sunny skies can be expected each day with highs in the low- to mid-70s.”

It means that sunny skies and crisp breezes will allow players to try to emulate Scheffler by going low on a course that historically churns out a ton of birdies. The problem for those chasing is simple: when, exactly, is Scheffler going to slow down?

Having birdied half of his opening holes, Scheffler seemingly won’t have to do more than stretch his legs to get to 30 under for a 72-hole total. Since switching to TPC Craig Ranch in 2021, no one has shot better than 26 under for the week – which would equate to a stumble and fall for Scheffler at this point.

“We’re on a golf course where you’ve got to make some birdies,” Scheffler said. “This tournament means a lot to me, and it’s nice to be playing good golf as well.”

So of the chase pack – with only three players within half of Scheffler’s 18-under total – who has the best chance at long odds, as conditions dry out and skies turn sunny? The answer, in my mind, is the most proven challenger: Jhonattan Vegas (+25000), who trails by eight shots at 10 under.

Vegas is the only player inside the overnight top 10 (other than Scheffler) who has multiple TOUR wins. He has four of them to be exact, including one last year at the 3M Open when he won with a 17-under total. He knows how to go low, plain and simple. Typically a strong iron player, Vegas is driving it well this week – 10th in the field in SG: Off-the-Tee. Additionally, his usual weakness (150th in SG: Putting this season) has turned into a strength (10th this week).

With calm conditions and breezes picking up, the course should dry out some – but will still be a far cry from firm-and-fast conditions. It should set up a dynamic where birdies are well within reach for everyone in the field, with aggressive play into the greens a must.

It'll be a tall task for Vegas, or anyone else in the field, to get within striking distance of Scheffler, let alone deny him his first win of 2025. But at +25000 odds, it could be worth a sprinkle in case Scheffler, I don’t know, sleeps through a few alarms. After all, we’re heading into Kentucky Derby weekend – sometimes the longshots hit when you least expect.

Then again, after bending TPC Craig Ranch to his will in inclement conditions, it’s hard to envision the world No. 1 breaking stride.

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