Draws and Fades: Justin Thomas leads, but it might be time to buy the dip with Scottie Scheffler

The chase pack thins as the RBC Heritage reaches the halfway point.

Justin Thomas remains in front for the second consecutive day, chasing his course record-tying 62 with a 69 for a two-shot lead over Russell Henley and Si Woo Kim. But while 72 players will continue into the weekend at the no-cut event, only 14 players are listed with outright odds below 100-to-1 heading into the third round.

That crop starts with Thomas, whose odds have tumbled down to +200 as he looks to win for the first time in nearly three years:

Updated odds to win RBC Heritage (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +200: Justin Thomas
• +400: Scottie Scheffler
• +600: Russell Henley
• +1000: Tommy Fleetwood, Si Woo Kim
• +1600: Collin Morikawa
• +2200: Andrew Novak
• +4000: Patrick Cantlay, Wyndham Clark

Thomas continues to set the pace with a potent combo of accurate iron play and a hot putter, while the biggest moves of the second round came from Kim (64) and Novak (65). Henley and Kim are both being buoyed by great stats on the greens, while Scheffler’s field-leading irons cooled a bit Friday, but he sits just four shots back.

Here’s a look at the in-play angles I have my eye on heading into the third round at Harbour Town:

Draws

Scottie Scheffler (+400)

When it comes to Scheffler, the “buy the dip” options can sometimes require a magnifying glass. He clearly didn’t have his best stuff last week at the Masters, but he still finished fourth and carried that momentum with him to Hilton Head en route to an opening 64. He flashed some rare on-course frustrations during the second round, with two bogeys in a four-hole stretch on the front nine and an inward scorecard that included nine straight pars. But the fundamentals remain strong as Scheffler looks to win for the first time in 2025.

Last year he slipped into the tartan jacket without his fastball, largely riding the momentum of his Masters triumph, and this time around he’s leaning hard on his iron play, which regressed Friday but still ranks third among the field. Scheffler’s now trading above his pre-tournament price of +360, but he’s trailing only five players and still well within reach of Thomas. A strong Moving Day could plunge these odds, even though they’re already the second-shortest in the field.

Mackenzie Hughes (+4500)

If you want a longer-priced option at this point, just stay in the same group at 8-under. Hughes is off to a solid start after rounds of 68-66, but his odds are eye-popping compared to those around him on the leaderboard. That’s likely due to his lack of form at Harbour Town, where he has missed three cuts in seven attempts and never finished better than last year’s T-39 result. But he’s coming off a T-10 finish two weeks ago in San Antonio and has put together a solid tee-to-green showing through 36 holes. The Canadian is doing a lot of things a little bit right, rather than excelling in one particular facet, and this price feels too high for a two-time TOUR winner who will be among the last few tee times on Saturday.

Fades

Tommy Fleetwood (+1000)

This feels like the type of event where Fleetwood could snag his long-awaited maiden TOUR victory, but I’m not buying him to do so at this price. Fleetwood is known for his iron play but has been making up most of his ground with his short game, ranking third in SG: Around the Green and 15th in SG: Putting. Fleetwood ranks 84th this season on the greens, and his iron play at Harbour Town (32nd out of 72) is pacing well below his season-long watermark (11th on TOUR). Fleetwood has made just two bogeys through 36 holes, and importantly, none on the back nine. But pricing him as the fourth favorite, given his lack of hardware on this side of the Atlantic, feels a little aggressive.

Collin Morikawa (+1600)

Morikawa’s putter switch paid dividends Friday, with a 5-under 66 that got him back into contention and ranked him fourth in SG: Putting for the round. But Morikawa has been hit or miss of late, as I’m far too keenly aware given my propensity for backing him in pre-tournament spots. His elite iron play will keep him in the mix at Harbour Town, and he’s likely to continue his streak of finishing T-17 or better in every start this year. But looking to win for the first time in about 18 months, I’m still not sure Morikawa’s new putter will be enough to deliver the trophy, particularly if he has to leap past both Thomas and Scheffler to get the job done.

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