Draws and Fades: Sam Ryder leads, but Tony Finau, in-play options abound at Valero Texas Open

It took a late charge from Sam Ryder to deprive Keith Mitchell of a First Round Leader titles, but there’s reason for pause on man in the visor.

Ryder’s late birdie charge gave him a 9-under 63 to pace the Valero Texas Open, as he made nearly everything in sight to grab the overnight lead at TPC San Antonio. Mitchell’s 8-under 64 left him one back, another Thursday surge after the veteran held at least a share of the opening-round lead at both the Valspar Championship and the Texas Houston Children’s Open.

The low scores were plentiful in San Antonio, where five players including Jordan Spieth shot a 5-under 66 or better. But it’s Ryder who now tops the odds board after teeing off as a +12000 longshot.

Updated odds to win Valero Texas Open (via FanDuel)

• +450: Sam Ryder
• +500: Keith Mitchell
• +750: Jordan Spieth
• +1000: Tommy Fleetwood
• +1400: Brian Harman
• +2200: Maverick McNealy
• +3000: Andrew Novak

Four years after slipping into the winning pair of cowboy boots, Spieth is the biggest name on the leaderboard as he trails by four shots. But there are several others still in the mix, as players who opened anywhere in the 60s likely feel like they’re still live for the trophy – especially on a layout as volatile as TPC San Antonio's Oaks Course proved to be a year ago.

Here’s a look at the players I’d look to add after one round, and those who may be priced a little short:

Draws

Tony Finau +3300

One week after nearly whiffing on a tap-in, Finau had another miserable day on the greens: making just 41 feet of putts across 18 holes and losing nearly -1.6 strokes to the field. The good news is that he’s still in the mix after a 3-under 69, thanks in part to birdie hole-outs from off the green on Nos. 14 and 17.

Finau was solid with the other 13 clubs in the bag, and he’s flying a bit under the radar this week after gaining a lot of pre-tournament attention last week in Houston on a course where he had finished first and T2 over his last two starts. Finau has struggled with his irons this year, but he ranked second in SG: Tee-to-Green in the opening round. With plenty of pedigree to get to the winner’s circle, he’ll likely be in the mix over the weekend if his ball-striking remains on track – and there’s nowhere to go but up on the greens.

Rico Hoey +5000

TPC San Antonio is a ball-striker’s venue, so it’s not surprising to see Hoey spike after a 3-under 69 in the opening round. He’s sixth this season in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green on TOUR, and those metrics carried over Thursday when he was 18th tee-to-green while ranking second in the field on approach.

While I’m not in a rush to head to the window to back Ryder at +450 as he looks for a maiden win, Hoey at 10 times the price has some intrigue even though he’s six shots adrift. Hoey may have figured something out last week in Houston, where he bounced back from a missed cut with a T11 finish that was highlighted by a final-round 64. That momentum came with him across the state, and his tee-to-green game should make him an option with upside the rest of the way.

Fades

Keith Mitchell +500

What can I say? The guy has Thursday figured out. As for the rest of the week, there’s work to be done.

Mitchell held the pole position at both Innisbrook Resort and Memorial Park, but he faded in a big way: T54 at Valspar and T18 in Houston. At Innisbrook, he didn’t get within five shots of his opening 67 the rest of the way. All told, the T18 last week – which included a closing 71 – marked his best result of the season.

There is clearly some momentum for the veteran, but he’s still struggling to put it all together across 72 holes. A big key will be his work on the greens – Mitchell putted well Thursday, ranking seventh in SG: Putting, but he entered the week ranked 117th on the greens this season. He also led the field in SG: Approach in the opening round while ranking 70th for the season. Both feel like outliers, even though Mitchell will continue to deliver birdie opportunities as one of the best drivers on TOUR.

Jordan Spieth +750

Don’t reach for the overnight catnip. Yes, Spieth is the biggest name on the board, and yes he won here four years ago. But that’s one of only two wins on TOUR for Spieth since 2018, and he remains somewhat erratic outside of a T4 finish in Scottsdale that didn’t prove to be a turning of the corner.

Spieth will have plenty of fan support this weekend, but the most important factor might be his putter, which turned back the clock to 2015 on Thursday as he made 124 feet of putts. But Spieth ranks 95th this season in SG: Putting, so the opening-round performance may be a mirage. Even if he keeps rolling in birdies, the price feels short for a player who was basically middle of the pack off the tee while hitting only nine fairways.

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