OLYMPIA FIELDS, Ill. – Saturday’s theme at Olympia Fields could be classified as one of change.

Changes in course conditions made things firm and fast for the third round of the BMW Championship, which ultimately led to some changes near the top of the leaderboard. After a triple bogey derailed overnight leader Max Homa, it’s now Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick who share the lead with Open champ Brian Harman just one shot back.

Updated odds to win BMW Championship (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+125: Scottie Scheffler (-11)

+350: Matt Fitzpatrick (-11)

+700 Brian Harman (-10)

+1000: Max Homa (-9), Rory McIlroy (-8)

+1400: Viktor Hovland (-8)

+3500: Xander Schauffele (-7)

Expect those changes to continue into Sunday, as the tournament reaches a crescendo with TOUR Championship (and Ryder Cup) berths on the line. The heat won’t just be a metaphor: for a week that started with mild temperatures in the high 70s, players will now finish things up in temps that could push into the 90s.

With warmer weather the course will be dried out from tee to green by the time the leaders reach the finishing stretch. Because of that, I’m looking to players who have shown good approach play – specifically proximity – as well as players who are both comfortable and reliable on the greens.

DRAWS

Matt Fitzpatrick (+350)

Last year’s U.S. Open winner seems to have a knack for managing tough golf courses and tough conditions. “Yeah, I personally prefer it being more difficult,” Fitzpatrick said, “I don't like it when it's a birdie fest. I hate those golf courses.” Fitzpatrick currently leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting which I believe is going to be the difference maker down the stretch on Sunday. Being able to make those 5- to 10-footers consistently when the pressure is high is what will separate the winner from the pack in these situations where the leaderboard is crowded. Aside from that, Fitzpatrick ranks third in the field in Greens in Regulation at just under 80%. A player who can hit greens and make his putts? Sign me up.

Viktor Hovland (+1400)

The Memorial winner at Muirfield Village is quietly lurking in Chicago, three strokes back after three straight rounds under par. Hovland carded the only eagle on Saturday, and that came at the opening hole by way of draining a 32-foot putt following a 295-yard approach. A birdie at the 18th also stood out from his 5-under 65, as the hole saw four birdies all day. Hovland’s above average all-around game makes him a threat almost anytime he tees it up, but I like his chances here given what we expect to see from the course and what it will demand from the eventual Viktor…er, victor.

Xander Schauffele (+3500)

This is almost strictly a numbers play, but the more I looked at it, the more I felt my eyes were deceiving me. It is not often you’ll get a +3500 price on a player as talented as Xander Schauffele at only a four-stroke deficit with 18 holes to play. To put it in perspective, Schauffele was at +2200 after 36 holes when he was trailing by six. A shocking opening-round 71 put Schauffele behind the 8-ball but his skills are as such that he can overcome a mediocre round from time to time. Schauffele ranks third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green only behind Rory McIlroy (8-under, +1000) and Scottie Scheffler (11-under, +125). His putting is what held him back on Thursday and Friday but his fortunes changed on Saturday when he gained 1.47 strokes on the green. This is a massive shift in which I think will help him be in contention late on Sunday and maybe even the clubhouse leader with eight golfers still on the course trying to chase him down.

FADES

Scottie Scheffler (+125)

Similar to my stance on Schauffele above, the value is simply not here for me. Yes, Scottie Scheffler is the No. 1 golfer in the world and yes, he is projected No. 1 in the FedExCup standings. But Scheffler still only has two wins to his name this season. Granted, they were two big tournaments at the WM Phoenix Open and THE PLAYERS Championship, but given how he has played, he should have more. Scheffler has been a machine on the golf course….except on the greens. Scheffler ranks 146th in Strokes Gained: Putting this season and is 28th in the field after 54 holes at -0.438. At odds of +125 I want a guy who is much more confident and reliable standing over putts and with the chasing pack being all guys in the top 50 of the FedExCup standings, this field is simply too strong to think Scheffler’s tee-to-green game will be enough to see him hoist the trophy like it has at other times in his career.

Brian Harman (+700)

Don’t get me wrong, The Open champion is playing outstanding golf and has been for quite some time. What scares me here is his Off-the-Tee game at Olympia Fields. He ranks 44thin SG: Off-the-tee at -2.207 and T43 in driving accuracy at just 47.62%...and those are rankings out of 49 players. Are you willing to put your trust in guy with those types of numbers off the tee when the tournament is on the line at the 18th hole? If so, more power to you, and you may be right given his putting numbers for the week. But I am looking to put my faith in guys that have a more balanced game, or at the very least seem to have turned things around on a Saturday full of change here at Olympia Fields.