Six days prior to the beginning of The Open Championship at Royal Liverpool, the site of Rory McIlroy’s last major victory, he has the lead heading into the weekend at the Genesis Scottish Open. Final preparation for the season’s last major is on, and McIlroy has made the most of it through 36 holes while moving to the top of the board.

As much as the story is McIlroy leading, it’s also about the weather forecast. Saturday’s start times have been moved to begin between 7:00 and 9:00 a.m. local time – or 2:00 a.m. in the east and 11:00 p.m. Pacific, which is roughly the same time they began on Thursday and Friday before the cut. Heavy rain is expected to fall in the early afternoon in North Berwick, Scotland on Saturday. The precipitation is then expected to ease up on Saturday night but that is when the wind is supposed to pick up. Sunday’s final round forecast is calling for winds around 25-35 MPH with gusts up to 40-50 MPH. Evidently this week is not only preparation for links golf but for Open Championship elements, too!

It is interesting to note that this week’s 72-hole Winning Score proposition bet opened at 266.5, meaning a winning score of 13.5 under par. Yes, McIlroy is already to 10 under but will anybody be able to go lower considering the weather?

Three players trail McIlroy by one shot at 9 under - Tyrrell Hatton, Tom Kim, and Byeong-Hun An. Hatton fired the low round of the day on Friday, a 62. Sam Burns and Brian Harman are at 8 under. Padraig Harrington, Scottie Scheffler and Nicolai Hojgaard are all three shots back, and seven players sit tied for 10th place at 6 under including Max Homa and Rickie Fowler.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+200: Rory McIlroy
+400: Tyrrell Hatton
+650: Scottie Scheffler
+900: Tom Kim
+1400: Sam Burns
+1600: Byeong-Hun An
+2200: Rickie Fowler, Brian Harman
+3300: Max Homa
+4000: Nicolai Hojgaard

It is a very interesting mix at the top of the leaderboard. The Genesis Scottish Open is an event that has primarily seen European winners. We of course, have McIlroy on top, another two-time Open champion in Harrington at 7 under, Hojgaard, and the 16th ranked player in the world in Hatton – who we saw win the Arnold Palmer Invitational in 2020 in similarly brutal wind conditions. On the American side, you have world Nos. 1, No. 8, 17, and 21 in Scheffler, Homa, Burns, and Fowler, respectively. Scheffler has shown excellent ability to play in the wind, having grown up in Texas. At one time, if not still, Fowler was arguably the best American player there is in the wind – who is also a former Scottish Open champion – and oh by the way, finished runner-up to McIlroy at Royal Liverpool in 2014.

Given the unpredictability that the weather conditions present, I’m going to back a couple of longer shots heading into the weekend.

Draws

Padraig Harrington (+5000)

I mentioned the Irishman being a two-time Open Champion. Obviously, the man knows how to play in these types of conditions. He’s gotten it to 7 under after two days and is still losing strokes to the field with the putter. With as slow as the greens are this week, putting should be one of the easier parts of the game. If all else goes the same for Harrington and the putting improves a little bit, he should be right there come Sunday afternoon. In my pre-tournament handicap this week, I used PGA National (Honda Classic) as a correlated course to The Renaissance Club. Harrington is a two-time former Honda Classic winner.

Shane Lowry (+5000)

Two strokes separate the two Irishmen with Lowry being at 5 under through 36 holes but yet the price is the same. Yes, I believe the value is much better on Harrington but again, I go back to the weather and the volatility I expect it will inject into this weekend’s equation. The way Lowry has played so far this week, has been a polar opposite of how he’s played this season. Nearly everything is going sideways and he’s putting brilliantly. He’s always had a fantastic short game. He may be the best wind player in the world. I don’t expect what he is doing on and around the greens to go away and I would imagine his ball striking will improve. If that is the case and the weather wreaks havoc on the majority of the others in contention, Lowry could rise to the top in a hurry. Over the last 36 rounds, coming into this event, Lowry was 26th in the field for SG: Off-the-Tee and 11th in SG: Approach. As a former Open champion himself, he ought to feel right at home in these conditions and see his tee to green game improve. And back we go to the Honda Classic connection, where quite a few Open champions have also flourished – Lowry hasn’t ever missed a cut at PGA National in six trips and has finished fifth and runner-up in his last two.

Fades

Sam Burns (+1400)

Between the Scottish Open and The Open Championship, Burns has played in three. His finishes have been 42nd, 66th, and 76th. We know Burns as a great putter and that has been on display here in North Berwick for two days, ranking second in the field for SG: Putting. However, he is losing strokes to the field on approach. Entering this tournament, Burns ranked 97th in this field for SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds. +1400 is too short for me for a player that doesn't seem to have the European and/or weather pedigree – yet. I’d make his chances here north of +2000, so I’ll be staying away from Burns this weekend.

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