After a one-week break, the PGA TOUR returns to action with the World Wide Technology Championship. This week’s stop takes the TOUR to Los Cabos, Mexico, where El Cardonal at Diamante Cabo San Lucas, a Tiger Woods design, will host the 132-man field.

El Cardonal offers a stunning coastal backdrop, built on a bluff with panoramic views of the Pacific Ocean. Despite the scenery, the course itself isn’t set directly along the beach. The Diamante course is built on elevated land in the desert foothills.

Although the property is situated above the coastline, the course is played at sea level. That means, unlike the Bank of Utah Championship, players won’t get any extra carry off the tee from thinner air.

Austin Eckroat won here last year at 24-under, following Erik van Rooyen’s 27-under victory the season before. The trend is clear – this event rewards the ability to make birdies in bunches. Anyone hoping to contend on Sunday will need to go deep into red figures.

Birdies are made in abundance at El Cardonal, in large part due to its 60-yard-wide fairways. Don’t be misled by the high missed fairway penalty here. Players find these fairways at some of the highest percentages. The number is inflated because there is virtually no rough; the fairway transitions directly into rocks, sand, and penalty areas.

With wide-open fairways and only one hole with water in play, the 7,452-yard par-72 course can feel almost defenseless at times. It’s easy to see why eight of the 18 holes play under par on average.

Success this week will come down to piling up birdies by being positioned well in the fairways with good angles to the pin. While hitting a bunch of greens in regulation, the golfers need to roll in plenty of putts on these big paspalum greens.

The recipe for success is no secret. Fairways, greens and putt well.

The key metrics that correlated to success are:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage
• SG: Approach
• Par 3 Scoring
• Par 4 Scoring
• Putts from 10-15’
• Putts from 15-20’
• SG: Easy Scoring

In addition to running a model with those key stats, I built a secondary model that averaged the strokes gained performances across four comp courses – Vidanta Vallarta, TPC Craig Ranch, Kapalua's Plantation Course and Corales Golf Course – over the last two years.

The golfers who have gained the most strokes on average per round at those courses are:

1. Ben Griffin
2. Keith Mitchell
3. Patrick Rodgers
4. Justin Lower
5. Jeremy Paul
6. Kevin Roy
7. Isaiah Salinda

Here’s a look at some of the plays that stand out to me this week in Mexico, with odds via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Garrick Higgo: To win (+2500), Top 10 finish (+250)

Higgo figures to be one of the most popular picks in the field this week, and with good reason. Few players are playing better right now. With top-10 finishes at the Procore Championship, Sanderson Farms Championship, and Baycurrent Classic, the 25-year-old lefty is putting together one of the best stretches in the FedEx Cup Fall.

At Sanderson Farms, Higgo came agonizingly close to a win, sharing the lead late on Sunday before Steven Fisk surged ahead to claim his first TOUR title. Rather than showing signs of a letdown, Higgo responded with a composed T4 finish the following week at the Baycurrent Classic.

El Cardonal should feel familiar and favorable for Higgo. In his debut here last year, he saw improvement in each round en route to a T6 finish. He thrives in birdie-fests, and the putter is a weapon in his hands. Over the last 36 rounds, only Taylor Montgomery has gained more strokes putting, and Higgo also ranks second in birdie or better gained.

Higgo should feel confident on this week’s Paspalum greens. He rolled the rock beautifully en route to his victory at the Corales Puntacana Championship – a course that shares many similarities with El Cardonal. With his great putting prowess and how well he is striking the ball, Higgo enters this week looking every bit the part of a player ready to pick up their second win of the year.

Matti Schmid: To win (+7000), Top 20 finish (+290)

Sticking with the theme of elite birdie-makers, Matti Schmid to finish inside the top 20 at +290 jumps off the board. He ranks second in the field in Birdie or Better Conversion Percentage, and when the putter heats up, he can score with the best of them.

Schmid’s debut at El Cardonal last year didn’t go to plan – he missed the cut after back-to-back top-five finishes in the two weeks prior. That inconsistency is part of what defines Schmid’s game at this point. He’s immensely talented but hasn’t found the steadiness to stay inside the world's top 50. Yet that very volatility is what makes him intriguing in a setup like this. When the scoring conditions are favorable, a streaky player who catches fire early can ride that momentum all week.

Schmid’s track record supports the case. He’s at his best on easier setups, posting top-10 finishes this year at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, Corales Puntacana Championship, and Puerto Rico Open. The trend carried over from last year as well, when he logged top 10s at the Shriners Children’s Open, Black Desert Championship, and Puerto Rico Open – all low-scoring, birdie-friendly venues.

To put it in perspective, Schmid entered this event last season priced among the favorites at +2200. Now, he sits at +8000, with the same upside and the same scoring profile. In a week where going low will be mandatory, Schmid’s ability to catch fire makes him a strong value play. His top-20 finish is the priority bet, but sprinkling a little on his outright number isn’t a bad idea, either.

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