This week's tournament roots go back to 1944 when Lord Byron Nelson himself won the inaugural Dallas Open. In the last 10 years, the venue for the tournament has changed four times. This Thursday marks the beginning of the third edition of the AT&T Byron Nelson that will be played at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas about 30 miles outside of Dallas.

In the two previous years at TPC Craig Ranch, we have seen winning scores of 25 and 26 under par. A 63 was enough to be First Round Leader in 2021 but not in 2022 as an opening round 60 took top honors. The golf course has been tweaked from a par 72 to play as a par 71 this year. The 12th hole has been converted from a par 5 to a long par 4 - but still, the theme remains, go low or be left behind.

It is an interesting guessing game as to what will take place in this year's event. In the past two seasons, TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the easiest courses on the TOUR schedule. But there is weather in the area to contend with this week. Thunderstorms are in the forecast nearly every day of the tournament and winds are expected to blow anywhere from 10-20+ mph. Wind is pretty typical for Texas in the springtime and many of the players in this field are used to such conditions but upwards of 20 mph cannot be discounted. The golf course is soft and will likely get softer with the expected rain. It isn't often that rain is a bigger factor than wind in a golf event but when trying to land on a First Round Leader, I believe the soft conditions that are a result of the moisture, will outweigh the wind element.

TPC Craig Ranch is a 7414-yard, Tom Weiskoph design with very wide, Zoysia grass fairways and large, flat, Bentgrass greens. The soft conditions may inhibit some of the shorter hitters off the tee but I feel that the entire field will be able to be aggressive playing into these greens and fire some darts at these flags - with very little bounce from balls hitting the receptive putting surfaces. With the wind, if players are going to have to play a longer club - or two - they still should be able to easily hold these greens on approach. Given questions about the expected weather conditions present, I still believe scoring will be especially low once again.

In my handicap this week, I considered Driving Distance and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. I looked at SG: Approach, SG: Par 5's, Birdies or Better Gained, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), and Hole Proximity from 175-200 yards and from 200 yards or more. In trying to come up with a First Round Leader especially, I believe it will come down to SG: Approach and putting. If this does become a "dart show," it will come down to iron play and a hot putter.

Jason Day (+3300)

Over the last 36 rounds, Day ranks 16th in this field for SG: Approach and 21st for SG: Putting (Bentgrass). He is 33rd on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average, 15th or Birdie Average, and 3rd for Bogey Avoidance. Australians have a history of success in Texas and I believe much of that is due to their experience in windy conditions. I feel like Day will want to bounce back after missing the cut last week at a tournament he's won. That could happen as soon as Thursday. So far in 2023, Day has put together nine rounds in which he gained three or more strokes on the field.

Matt Kuchar (+4000)

Not Australian but Kuchar is another player who has had great success in the state of Texas - and it may be due to his lower ball flight giving him an advantage in dealing with the wind. Over the last 36 rounds, Kuchar is 14th in this field for SG: Putting on Bentgrass. He is sixth on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance and 35th for First Round Scoring Average. Like Day, Kuchar has also fired nine rounds this year that have gained three or more strokes on the field.

Dylan Wu (+8000)

Wu ranks 26th on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average, 23rd in Birdie Average, and 35th in Bogey Avoidance. Like Kuchar, he is not especially long off the tee but is very accurate. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 24th in this field for SG: Approach and is 74th on TOUR in SG: Putting. Wu has had eight rounds in 2023 in which he gained three or more strokes on the field.

Eric Cole (+8000)

Cole has 10 rounds in 2023 that gained three or more strokes on the field. That is second to only Scottie Scheffler. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 13th in this field for SG: Putting (Bentgrass) and fifth for SG: Approach. He is 47th on TOUR in Birdie Average, 44th in First Round Scoring Average, and 25th in Bogey Avoidance. He lacks distance off the tee and isn't very accurate either - but he just finished fifth in Mexico three weeks ago, another course that is long with very wide fairways. With the wide fairways at TPC Craig Ranch and soft conditions, I'm willing to take a chance on Cole being able to go low - as he's done many times this season, ranking 10th on TOUR with 30 rounds shot in the 60s.

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