We have come very close to cashing a First Round Leader ticket in each of the last two weeks on TOUR. This week, we find ourselves at another designated event, the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow Club, taking place just a fortnight prior to the second major of the season, the PGA Championship. Let’s look to continue trending in the right direction with our plays.

“Kentucky Derby Prep Races” in horseracing have come to an end for this season. The run for the roses is upon us, taking place as always, on the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs. However, on the PGA TOUR, the Mexico Open at Vidanta and the Wells Fargo Championship, ought to be very good “derby preps” leading up to the PGA Championship at Oak Hill as they cater to the bombers and players that thrive off of the tee. Vidanta was a par-71 layout stretching to nearly 7,500 yards. Quail Hollow is another par 71, measuring over 7,500 yards, and Oak Hill is a par 70 checking in at nearly 7,400 yards. What we learned last week and what we will learn this week at these “big boy” golf courses should help us with our handicap at yet another beast of a golf course in two weeks in Rochester.

Quail Hollow is a major championship venue, having hosted the PGA Championship in 2017, and is scheduled to do so again in 2025. It also hosted The Presidents Cup in September of 2022. Like any such golf course, it will take a little bit of everything done well here to win, but I placed added weight in my handicap this week on what players are doing off the tee. Total Driving is key here, a combination of length and accuracy. Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Distance have proven to be of the utmost importance at Quail Hollow. Jim Furyk is the only Wells Fargo champion to rank worse than 28th in the field for the week in Driving Distance. The No. 1 player on TOUR currently in Driving Distance, Rory McIlroy, has recorded three wins at Quail Hollow in his career.

Three of the four par-3s here are over 200 yards long. Most of the approach shots faced at Quail Hollow will be between 175-200 yards. The majority of the Par 4s measure 450-500 yards. As we mentioned earlier, every part of the game will be tested here and sure enough, putting on these very firm and fast Bermuda grass greens will be important – as will 3-Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance, and Scrambling.

Given all of that, when we examine the First Round Leader market, we want players that are well-rounded in the areas of focus. But more specifically, we simply want to make birdies and avoid bogeys on Thursday. We want to combine the macro handicap with a bit of a lightning-in-a-bottle, one-round outlier.

I’ve come up with three players this week who I believe fit the bill, doing just about everything well that is required this week but also have shown the ability to take it to another level on one isolated round.

Come Sunday, we will likely have a champion that ran a very complete race. For now, let’s just see if we can find a really good quarter-horse. (Odds below via BetMGM Sportsbook.)

Viktor Hovland (+3300)

Hovland captured First Round Leader honors at the Masters and nearly did so the very next week at the RBC Heritage when he opened with a 64. He ranks second on TOUR in First Round Scoring Average. He’s 15th on TOUR in Birdie Average and 11th for Birdies or Better on Par 4s, of which there are 11 on this course. Over the last 12 rounds, Hovland is fourth in this field for Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, fifth for SG Approach, 12th in Bogey Avoidance and third in Greens in Regulation Gained. In first rounds played in 2023, Hovland has gained five or more strokes on the field twice.

Sungjae Im (+3500)

Not far behind Hovland in First Round Scoring Average is Im, who ranks seventh on TOUR. He’s 12th in Bogey Avoidance. Over the last 12 rounds, Im is third in this field for Birdies or Better Gained, ninth in SG Par 5’s, and second in SG: Off the Tee. On four separate occasions this year Im has gained 4+ strokes on the field in an opening round. When Im teamed up with Keith Mitchell at the Zurich Classic, they were holding onto the First Round Leader position for quite a while before finally being clipped at the end by one shot.

Patrick Rodgers (+8000)

Rodgers has been playing some of his best golf recently and has finished as high as runner-up here at the Wells Fargo Championship. He is No. 1 on TOUR for Rounds in the 60s. Over the last 12 rounds, Rodgers is eighth in SG Off the Tee, 15th in SG Approach, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, 24th in Birdies or Better Gained, sixth in Greens in Regulation Gained, and eighth on Par 4s measuring between 450-500 yards – a range where nine of the 11 Par 4s here fall. The remaining two are possible birdie opportunities too, at less than 350 yards.

In each of the last three Wells Fargo Championships contested at Quail Hollow Club, the First Round Leader has come from the late wave of start times. Here, we have landed on two from the late wave (Hovland and Im) and one from the early wave (Rodgers). Bombs (and birdies) away, fellas!

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.