The third round of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship is in the books, and we head into Sunday with a pair of leaders at 12-under par. Fourteen golfers are within striking distance, setting up the potential for an electric finish on a course that has already delivered plenty of volatility.

Adam Schenk (+380) opens as the betting favorite and is chasing his first PGA TOUR win. Max McGreevy and Takumi Kanaya sit next at +500, with co-leader and PGA TOUR rookie Braden Thornberry fourth on the board at +600. Of the seven golfers tied or within two shots, Adam Hadwin (+750) is the only player with a TOUR win, which makes it very likely we see someone collect their first victory, a hefty payday, and a two-year exemption.

Players have battled tough conditions all week. Gusting winds and on-and-off showers have made scoring unpredictable, and Sunday’s forecast suggests nothing will come easy. Rain is expected in the morning, followed by clearing skies and strengthening winds. Sustained winds above 30 mph and gusts nearing 40 mph could completely flip the leaderboard. If someone posts a score from, they might sit back and watch the field fall apart behind them. Don’t count anyone out who’s close enough to make a run.

For the favorites…

Takumi Kanaya to win +500

Kanaya might be the most intriguing of the contenders. All he’s done in Japan is win, collecting eight victories on the Japan Golf Tour. He’s no stranger to closing tournaments, and being one shot back entering Sunday shouldn’t faze him. This isn’t to diminish what the others have accomplished, but Kanaya’s experience in tight finishes matters.

Port Royal doesn’t require brute distance. Among players at 10-under or better, the average driving distance this week is just 265 yards, and none are averaging more than 267. That’s the wind talking, but it also shows that accuracy has been more valuable than power.

Kanaya has been rock-solid off the tee, hitting 76.2% of fairways—the best mark in the field. In the first two rounds, he topped 78%. Had it not been for a rough day with his irons in the second round where he only hit the greens at a 50% mark, he would at minimum share the lead. With the wind expected to be the dominant force on Sunday, precision off the tee could decide the tournament, and Kanaya checks that box. Of the top group, he’s my favorite selection.

Taking a swing at a long shot…

Alex Smalley to win +8000

Let’s be honest: coming from five back in these conditions will require something special. If Sami Valimaki were at 7-under instead of 6-under, he would’ve been the pick here. Through a process of elimination, the dart lands on Smalley as someone who has the potential to fire a round that flips the leaderboard.

He struggled here last year on Sunday, losing -2.2 strokes to the field. But when searching for a true longshot play, you’re looking for someone capable of spike rounds—and Smalley has that gear. In 2023, he carded a 65 in the final round, gaining +3.8 strokes on the field, one of the best rounds of the day. It only moved him to T30, but it showed what he’s capable of at Port Royal.

Over the last 12 months, Smalley ranks third in this field in Strokes Gained, behind only Vince Whaley (+1700) and Thorbjorn Olesen (+20000). He’s solid off the tee overall, finding about 65% of fairways. After a disastrous driving day in round two when he hit only 35.7% of fairways, he corrected course to 57.1% in round three and still has room to climb. He’s also 15th in Birdie or Better Gained, ninth in SG: Short Courses, and strong on par 4s.

It’s obviously a long shot, but if you’re hunting a price, he’s my favorite number on the board.

Sunday is shaping up to be survival golf. With the forecast looking brutal, expect big swings, expect chaos, and don’t be surprised if the winner comes from more than a couple of groups back. This one feels far from settled.