The FedExCup Fall rolls on with another international stop – the Butterfield Bermuda Championship at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda. This week’s co-favorites, Kevin Yu and Rico Hoey (both +1900 at FanDuel Sportsbook), look to follow in the footsteps of last week’s betting favorite and eventual champion Ben Griffin, as they chase a victory to wrap up the season.

After four top-25 finishes in his last five starts, Hoey is trending toward a breakthrough as he searches for his first PGA TOUR victory. Yu, on the other hand, is looking to rebound from a missed cut at the World Wide Technology Championship and capture his second career win. Both players rank among the field’s best in ball-striking and birdie average. With such high upside, it's clear why the oddsmakers have them as co-favorites.

Port Royal, a Robert Trent Jones design measuring just 6,828 yards, is the shortest course on TOUR. Its compact layout, featuring narrow fairways, typically neutralizes distance and levels the playing field, allowing shorter hitters a better chance of contending.

With 11 par 4s, most under 450 yards, the majority of the field will have a wedge into the greens with frequency after their tee shot. The three par 5s are all reachable in two, which opens the door for the field to be aggressive. Yet, as always in Bermuda, the course’s biggest defense is the wind.

Current forecasts predict sustained winds between 15-25 mph, with gusts approaching 35 mph, and scattered rain chances throughout the week. It’s important to note that the forecast may change as the event approaches.

That unpredictability has shaped the identity of this event. Each of the past six winners came from at least three shots back after the opening round.

If the wind doesn’t show up, Port Royal becomes extra getable. When conditions calm, this course becomes nearly defenseless. Players will go extremely low. The often-changing forecast is why it’s smart to wait until tee times are released to make the majority of bets this week.

Without ShotLink data available for this event, past performance and golfer profiles serve as the guide for identifying the most correlated metrics.

Accuracy off the tee carries more value than distance, but it’s not everything. The rough is only about 2 inches, meaning misses aren’t overly penalized. The greens are small, yet with the large amount of approach shots coming from inside 125 yards, the greens in regulation percentage here is high. That’s why Port Royal often turns into a putting contest.

Looking at the profiles of the past champions, putting prowess is a massive separating factor. Rafael Campos’ performance last year was a perfect example – just 21 total putts in the third round, the fewest ever recorded in tournament history.

Here’s a breakdown of the key metrics most correlated with success at Port Royal:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
• SG: Putting (Bermudagrass)
• Birdie or Better Gained
• SG: Approach
• Proximity: 75-100 yards
• SG: Par 4 350-400
• SG: Par 4 400-450
• SG: Short Courses

Justin Lower to win +5500 or to finish top 20 +270

Sometimes a golf course fits a player’s eye – and for Justin Lower, Port Royal is that place. It makes perfect sense, too. His first PGA TOUR start as a rookie came here in 2021, and ever since, he’s been lights-out here. Maybe it’s the comfort of familiar surroundings, or perhaps it’s knowing this is where his TOUR journey began, but Lower always seems to bring his best stuff to Bermuda.

Few players in the field can match his course resume. He’s finished inside the top 20 in all four appearances at Port Royal: T5, T8, T20 and T17. That kind of consistency is rare on a course that is so influenced by the wind and often unpredictable.

Statistically, the fit checks out. Lower isn’t long off the tee – he averages just 287.9 yards, but he hits nearly 64% of fairways and feasts on short par 4s. His wedge play is sharp, and he is one of the stronger Bermuda putters in the field.

He popped a few weeks ago with a T3 finish at the Bank of Utah Championship. He followed that up with two solid opening rounds at El Cardonal last week (67-65) before tapering off on the weekend.

Back on a course where he’s been comfortable and confident, Lower to win and finish inside the top 20 are plays that present a lot of value.

Matti Schmid to win +2700 or to finish top 10 +320

It’s back to the well with Schmid, who is playing some incredible golf at the moment. Even though his final round in Mexico didn’t go as planned, there’s plenty to like about where his game stands right now.

The reasoning for backing Schmid last week applies again here. He’s proven himself as an easy-course specialist. He’s posted top-10 finishes at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, Corales Puntacana Championship, and the Puerto Rico Open. Then he added a T11 last week in Mexico.

A common trend among those events? Location. Each was played on a coastal resort-style course where scoring opportunities are abundant and wind management is key.

From a numbers standpoint, he’s a strong fit for Port Royal. While he’s not pinpoint accurate with his driver, he’s consistently gaining strokes off the tee. He also ranks fourth in the field in SG: Par 4s at 400-450 yards. Add in a reliable putter and one of the better scoring averages, and he should play well this weekend.

After spending most of last weekend in contention, Schmid’s biggest challenge now is how he responds. If he starts fast and keeps the momentum rolling, another run toward the top of the leaderboard feels well within reach.

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