Picking golf winners is hard at the best of times, but when you at variables at play from the island of Bermuda, the difficulty setting goes up a few notches.

With tough winds and micro squall storms wreaking havoc, plus the pressure of players fighting for TOUR cards, finding potential live bets at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship can feel like a lottery.

And sometimes, maybe the play is to treat it just like that. A lottery. In other words, a sprinkle of small live bets on higher odds can be a fun and potentially fruitful ride rather than a bigger play on current favorites.

With the 15 to 25 MPH winds (and 35 MPH gusts) at Port Royal Golf Course slated to continue throughout the tournament, the winner could still be deep down on this leaderboard. When the rain squalls hit like they did late Thursday, luck becomes a factor. Are players on tough or easy holes when conditions get rough?

The last six winners have been three or more behind after the opening round, so while Adam Hadwin is feeling awesome about his 6-under 65, he also knows there is still a very long way to go.

The Canadian is up top alone, having played in the afternoon wave. He had the benefit of some dissipation of the wind late and getting in the house before a rain dump. Also in the afternoon were Takumi Kanaya and Braden Thornberry, who are tied for second. Kanaya finished off a round of 66 to be 5-under while Thornberry sits on that score through 16 holes as darkness halted play.

Isaiah Salinda, Frankie Capan III (16 holes), Alex Smalley and Japan’s Ryo Hisatsune share fourth at 4-under while Kris Ventura, Chandler Phillips, Harry Higgs, Vince Whaley, Rikuya Hoshino and Noah Goodwin (14 holes) sit 3-under in a tie for eighth.

Here are the front-runners, in terms of updated odds at DraftKings Sportsbook:

• +750: Takumi Kanaya (5-under)
• +1000: Alex Smalley (4-under)
• +1100: Adam Hadwin (6-under)
• +1400: Thorbjørn Olesen (2-under)
• +1600: Vince Whaley (3-under)
• +1800: Isaiah Salinda (4-under), Ryo Hisatsune (4-under), Nico Echavarria (2-under), Pierceson Coody (2-under)
• +2500: Kris Ventura (3-under)

Of course, the winner could come from the list above. And I don’t mind Coody or Whaley at all. Coody was T12 in his previous visit to Bermuda and has good recent form, highlighted by his T3 at the Bank of Utah Championship. Whaley has three previous top 10s on this course and he now has 12 rounds in the 60s on this patch of territory. T5 a year ago, could be going higher this week.

But what about some names not up there on the board? What are some wilder plays ahead of what will be a wild three more days? Consider these:

Greyson Sigg: Outright (+5500), Top 5 and Ties (+750), Top 10 and Ties (+320)

Sigg has three results inside the top 22 at Port Royal in the last three years, including a T9 last year. In now 13 rounds, five of them have been 67 or lower, highlighted by a 64 to open in 2023. At 140th in the FedExCup Fall coming into the week, Sigg knows he needs to make a move, so you can expect him to continue fighting throughout. As such, he becomes a nice higher odds option across the outright and place markets.

Eric Cole: Top 20 and Ties (+225), Top 10 and Ties (+550)

After a 1-over 72 on Thursday, Cole is closer to a missed cut, which he has done in Bermuda before, than he is to the top 20. However, when you take a closer look at his efforts in the opening round, you see he notched up four birdies against two bogeys and a disastrous triple bogey on the par-5 17th, the easiest hole on the course. In other words, he was severely punished for one bad swing but otherwise played decently. Of particular note was the fact it was his eighth hole of the day, having started on the 10th, and from that point on, Cole was 2-under.

With two top 10s in his last three starts, Cole is in form and he’s no stranger to playing in the wind as a Florida guy. I don’t mind the plus money for a top 20 here, and if you are feeling like it’s your turn to win Powerball, then top 10 brings juicier odds at +550 but might be a bridge too far.

Seamus Power: Outright (+3000)

Power is a former winner here (2022). Leading into the tournament, he had a handy 68.45 scoring average from his 20 rounds and put up a 69 today. Don’t sleep on him.

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