Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favored over Rory McIlroy at BMW Championship
5 Min Read

Caves Valley course flyover
Written by Mike Glasscott
The final 50 players still alive in the FedExCup Playoffs head to the BMW Championship at Caves Valley Golf Club in the Baltimore suburb of Owings Mills, Maryland, in an attempt to qualify for the TOUR Championship next week in Atlanta. Sitting in his normal pole position at the top of the FanDuel Sportsbook is FedExCup leader and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+230).
The reigning FedExCup champion knocked off any rust from his European vacation – where he won The Open Championship – and shared third last week in Memphis, Tennessee, missing out on a playoff by a shot. Posting four scores in the 60s, none worse than 67, the Texan circled 23 birdies against just eight bogeys while gaining eight shots against the field off the tee and into the greens. Cashing inside the top 10 for the 14th time in 17 events in 2025, he reached a streak of 12 straight top-eight finishes. Incredibly, he owns just one FedExCup Playoffs victory, his triumph at the 2024 TOUR Championship.
Fresh from a summer holiday, Rory McIlroy (+700), who has not teed it up since finishing T7 at The Open, will look to add to his proud history at the BMW Championship. Finishing fourth at Caves Valley in 2021, when the course played as a 7,542-yard par 72, the Ulsterman returns to the newly expanded par-70 playing at 7,601 yards. Before his sojourn, he rattled off T6 at the Travelers Championship and T2 at the Genesis Scottish Open before adding another top-10 result at Royal Portrush. At the BMW Championship, regardless of the host venue, he owns seven top-10 paydays from 14 career starts, including T12 or better in the previous five seasons. Longer and stronger tracks favor the most talented ball-strikers and players, which he easily qualifies as one.
The best player in the world to never win an event on the PGA TOUR, Tommy Fleetwood (+2000), added another chapter to his epic last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Solo leader after 36 and 54 holes, the Englishman held a two-shot advantage late on the back nine before settling for a share of third with Scheffler, his 12th podium finish in 162 events played on TOUR and second in four events. Nobody hit more fairways and only one player hit more greens in regulation at TPC Southwind. An extra 300 yards on the scorecard this week will prove to be another challenge.

Tommy Fleetwood's interview after a heartbreaking final round at FedEx St. Jude
Xander Schauffele (+2000) snapped a streak of two consecutive paydays in the top 10 with a T22 finish in Memphis. Sitting at No. 43 in the FedExCup standings, he will need to jump 13 players to qualify for the TOUR Championship at East Lake, an event he has never missed, when eligible, in his career. The nine-time winner owns three consecutive T8 or better paydays at the BMW Championship, but only managed T49 on his first visit to Caves Valley in 2021. A disappointing FedExCup Regular Season can be fixed with a season-best result in Maryland.
Patrick Cantlay (+2200) was one of many players to return to action in Memphis to begin the FedExCup Playoffs. The Californian, who missed the cut in three of his last six events, closed with three rounds in the 60s to pick up his first paycheck in the top 10 since early May. Sitting No. 19 in the FedExCup standings, he returns to Caves Valley as the “defending” champion at the course. A winner of a six-hole playoff in 2021 after signing for 27-under 261, he successfully defended his BMW Championship the following season, his eighth and most recent win on TOUR. Cantlay ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Total and SG: Tee-to-Green.
Sitting at No. 9 in the FedExCup rankings and with his ticket already punched to East Lake next week, Justin Thomas (+2200) can focus on knocking out another high-quality field. Already a winner at the RBC Heritage, one of eight Signature Events in 2025, Thomas returns to the BMW Championship as a winner here in 2019, which is also his only top-10 payday. He got the job done in his 10th start at the event at Medinah Country Club outside Chicago. Closing with 65 in Memphis to finish T28, his next step is stringing four rounds together. In the 2021 event, he posted three of four rounds in the 60s and cashed T22.
Anytime the scorecard is 7,500 yards-plus, Ludvig Åberg (+2500) will push toward the top of the odds board. The winner at Torrey Pines in February, on the longest course used on TOUR annually, the Swede provides the pop with the big stick to separate from the rank and file. Three rounds of 67 last week forced his way into the top 10 for the second time in three starts since the Genesis Scottish Open. Signing for T23 at Royal Portrush in between the two top-10 paydays suggests he’s in form.
J.J. Spaun (+3000) locked up a spot on the Ryder Cup team as an automatic qualifier after falling short in a playoff to Justin Rose (+4000) at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. Rose also claimed a spot on the European roster as an automatic qualifier. Both men are ranked second on the Ryder Cup points list, and both lost a playoff to Rory McIlroy earlier in the season. Spaun, the winner of the U.S. Open, was the runner-up at THE PLAYERS Championship to McIlroy. Rose, at age 45, becomes the oldest European to win on TOUR in the modern era and finished second to McIlroy at the Masters. Cameron Young (+3000), fresh off his first TOUR victory at the Wyndham Championship, closed with 63, the round of the day on Sunday at the FedEx St. Jude, to earn fifth-place money in Memphis, and is hotter than the weather. U.S. Ryder Cup Captain Keegan Bradley (+4500), making his 13th appearance, is the event’s defending champion from 2024 at Castle Pines and also won the 2018 title at Aronimink Golf Club.
Here is a look at the players, either side of the 30th position, attempting to qualify for the TOUR Championship. The top 30 qualify for four rounds at East Lake next week to determine the FedExCup champion.
Rank | Player | Odds |
25 | Sungjae Im | +5000 |
26 | Chris Gotterup | +4500 |
27 | Jacob Bridgeman | +15000 |
28 | Viktor Hovland | +3500 |
29 | Akshay Bhatia | +5500 |
30 | Lucas Glover | +12500 |
31 | Sam Stevens | +12500 |
32 | Ryan Gerard | +15000 |
33 | Daniel Berger | +10000 |
34 | Ryan Fox | +12500 |
35 | Taylor Pendrith | +7000 |
Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, via FanDuel:
- +3300: Collin Morikawa
- +3500: Sam Burns
- +4000: Ben Griffin, Matt Fitzpatrick
- +5000: Hideki Matsuyama, Corey Conners
- +5500: Rickie Fowler
- +6000: Shane Lowry, Robert MacIntyre, Maverick McNealy, Kurt Kitayama, Harris English
- +6500: Harry Hall
- +7500: Si Woo Kim, Andrew Novak, Jason Day
- +8000: Denny McCarthy
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