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Horses for Courses: Patrick Cantlay hopes to repeat 2021 theatrics at Caves Valley

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Horses for Courses

Handshake Bets crew examine odds around Xander Schauffele's East Lake hopes

Handshake Bets crew examine odds around Xander Schauffele's East Lake hopes

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    The BMW Championship returns to Caves Valley Golf Club outside of Baltimore, Maryland, for the second time since 2021 and for the second time in the history of the event. Identifying the champion is the first order of business. The second is shaving the field of 49 down to the 30 players who will advance to the TOUR Championship next week in Atlanta. Patrick Cantlay (+2500), the previous winner at Caves Valley and a two-time winner of the BMW Championship, highlights a field of 49 after Sepp Straka withdrew on Monday.

    Cantlay put on a master class with the flatstick to produce 27-under 261 on the par-72 layout in the 2021 championship. Gaining 3.644 strokes against the field on the greens, he still needed a six-hole playoff to close the deal. The 2025 edition will play and feel brand-new tee-to-green and on the putting surfaces. The par-72 has been reduced to a par-70 but has been expanded by almost 60 yards to 7,601 yards, an increase from 7,542 yards in 2021. Read more on the changes here. The owner of four top-10 paydays at the BMW Championship, seven of eight registered T15 or better.

    Keegan Bradley (+4500) joins Cantlay as the other two-time BMW Championship winner playing this week. The U.S. Ryder Cup captain is also the defending champion of the event, held outside Denver in 2024. Bradley also knocked off Justin Rose in a playoff in the 2018 edition at Aronimink Golf Club in Philadelphia, his first of two top-10 paychecks from 12 attempts.

    Top finishers - 2021 BMW Championship

    Players listed below are competing this week; odds presented by FanDuel Sportsbook

    PositionPlayerOdds
    1Patrick Cantlay+2500
    3Sungjae Im+8000
    4Rory McIlroy+750
    8Sam Burns+3500
    T17Viktor Hovland+3500
    T22Scottie Scheffler+220
    T22Corey Conners+4500
    T22Justin Thomas+2500
    T26Harris English+5000
    T26Daniel Berger+125000
    T26Shane Lowry+7000
    T29Brian Harman+8000
    T29Si Woo Kim+6000

    Rory McIlroy (+750) is making his 15th career start at the BMW and owns seven top-10 finishes, including a victory in 2012. Finishing fourth in 2021, he was one of six players who topped 20-under for the week in the first event at Caves Valley. The world No. 2 owns six FedExCup Playoffs victories, including three FedExCup championships at East Lake Golf Club, another demanding par-70 layout measuring over 7,400 yards. The Northern Irishman feasts this time of year, owning finishes of T19 in 11 of 14 career events.


    Rory McIlroy on difficult finishing hole at Caves Valley

    Rory McIlroy on difficult finishing hole at Caves Valley


    Sitting at No. 43 entering the week, Xander Schauffele (+1800) also enjoys the last two events of the FedExCup Playoffs. Searching for his first victory, he will enjoy the new-look layout at Caves Valley. In eight BMW Championships, he collected seven paydays of T20 or better, including top-10 paychecks over the last three editions. The only outlier? T49 in 2021 at Caves Valley.

    Sungjae Im (+8000), conversely, wishes Caves Valley had produced a carbon-copy layout in 2025. The Korean posted four rounds of 67 or better to post 23-under and occupy solo third. Making his seventh trip to the BMW Championship, he owns five T15 or better finishes and a pair of results inside the top seven.

    Strokes Gained: Off the Tee

    Entered this week

    RankPlayerOdds
    1Scottie Scheffler+220
    3Rory McIlroy+750
    7Chris Gotterup+3500
    8Taylor Pendrith+8000
    10Ludvig Åberg+2200
    11Kurt Kitayama+3500
    12Collin Morikawa+3500
    19Daniel Berger+12500
    20Corey Conners+4500

    Caves Valley has tightened up the fairways, pinched in bunkers and increased the length of the rough upwards of four inches. Gaining shots on the field off the tee and attacking from the short grass will set the foundation for the week. The 2021 edition produced seven players in the top 11 spots on the final leaderboard from this category. Length and accuracy, now on a scorecard measuring 7,601 yards, will always play.

    Oddsmaker’s extras

    • Scottie Scheffler (+280): After podium paydays of T2 in 2023 and T3 in 2022, the favorite this week and every week, will look to improve on his T22 result in 2021.
    • Justin Rose (+4500): The 2011 winner and a runner-up in 2017 and 2018, the Englishman looks to add to his four top-10 paydays. He did not qualify for the 2021 edition.
    • Justin Thomas (+3000): His win in 2019 outside Chicago at Medinah No. 3 remains his only top-10 result.
    • Sam Burns (+4500): Cashing solo eighth place in 2021, the Louisiana native owns four T19 or better finishes.
    • Tommy Fleetwood (+3500): The Englishman shared fifth in 2024 and continued his streak of four consecutive results T25 or better.
    • Corey Conners (+4000): Half of his six starts have paid off in the top 10. The Canadian led the field in Fairways in 2021 and cashed T22.

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