It’s funny how gamers are inclined to attach expectations to the hope that goes with a plan. Of course, we do; positive vibes and all that. But because our control extends only so far, it’s still crucial to remain realistic and fluid as we race to the finish line.

The BMW Championship represents the penultimate stop for both the FedExCup season and the fantasy season in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore. With only 49 golfers in play (after Sepp Straka withdrew for personal reasons on Monday) and no cut, separation amongst the powers in your little league is even more difficult than last week’s field of 69 until FedExCup bonus points are applied to your starters in the final round.

But you already know that, which is why you’ve reserved Scottie Scheffler and/or Rory McIlroy to be your captain for all three legs of the FedExCup Playoffs. With the duo winning a combined seven times in 31 starts this season, your long-range plan to cash in at this time was the only plan. (OK, so not all plans are the same, but there’s a lot to consider no matter your situation.)

Alas, you’re 0-for-1.

Scheffler “settled” for a two-way T3 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. It yielded 65 FedExCup bonus points that doubled to 130 as the captain, but it’s not the 400 on which we were counting. Our only salvation is that champion Justin Rose appeared on just 3.6 percent of the rosters submitted, but that nets out to a win for front-runners with the clock on their side.

With Rory McIlroy returning to competition at Caves Valley Golf Club, you need to take stock of where you are in your plan and if it’s time to adjust, not just for this week but for both stops across this fortnight. And if you haven’t already, tally how many starts the target of your opposition has burned for all golfers in Segment 3. Accounting for all that can bear leverage.

Here are two possible popular scenarios as it concerns Scheffler and McIlroy:

• If you’re chasing and both you and your target have two starts remaining for both, Scheffler is your captain at the BMW Championship. With McIlroy also rostered, fill the remaining four slots with golfers who are both strategically slotted (against your opponent’s total starts remaining) and likely to contend. Even if you have only two that are dissimilar to your opponent’s lineup, that’s enough of a deviation for the potential to make a dent. An exception to this advice is if you need to swing for the fence both this week and next to have a chance to win. If that’s the case, then McIlroy is your captain at Caves Valley, and then probably again at East Lake Golf Club (assuming you’re still within reach to prevail and can’t be stymied).
• If you’re chasing and both you and your target have exactly one start remaining for Scheffler, burn it this week. Your opponent will not exhaust the insurance of having Scheffler at East Lake and you can’t count on getting lucky with a non-Scheffler lineup to take the lead. What’s more, you’ll forever regret not playing him if he takes the title. He’s your chip to go with your chair.

Sizes of deficits to your target matter, of course, but don’t sleep on the fact that everyone rosters six golfers. With all guaranteed four rounds, good luck and bad luck are promised to have seats at the table in the final round. If you’re in a situation whereby, say, neither you nor your target has any starts remaining for both Scheffler and McIlroy, or you’re stuck in any other way, reach out to me publicly or privately on X.

Just a brief note that the Power Rankings for next week’s TOUR Championship will slot the entire field of 30 per tradition, but there still will be a Fantasy Insider column to review the fantasy game and anything else that emerges.

Captain

Scottie Scheffler … As detailed above, it’s relative to your situation at this time, but he’s still at the top of the food chain, not to mention my Power Rankings.

Other considerations

• Rory McIlroy ... No. 2 in the Power Rankings, and also explained in the opening. He finished fourth at Caves Valley in 2021, but that’s more fact than friction given the changes to the course.
• Ludvig Åberg ... The third-string captain is a pick’em in the absence of an obvious choice, but if neither Scheffler nor McIlroy is available to you, then I like the Swede’s upward angle at this time. Many others have stated solid cases for the role – Cameron Young, Justin Rose, J.J. Spaun and Tommy Fleetwood, especially, and all are found somewhere from No. 3 through No. 7 in my Power Rankings – but Åberg (No. 5) arrives under the radar despite top 10s in two of his last three starts.

Rounding out the roster

Just as I did last week in pivoting to Fleetwood after my initial lineup was released – yes, Sunday was bittersweet – I might jump off at least one of these guys before the opening round begins. Schauffele likely will remain exactly where he is. I have one start remaining and, at 43rd in the FedExCup, he has work to do to advance to East Lake. The logic for him is simple. If he plays well, then I’ll want to capitalize on it now in my position of pursuit.

My starters

• Ludvig Åberg
• Rory McIlroy
• Scottie Scheffler (C)
• Cameron Young

My bench

• Xander Schauffele (1)
• Patrick Cantlay (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings, which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out those who demand a pause and why.

Collin Morikawa ... He was the only golfer among the 27 who recorded a top 25 at the FedEx St. Jude who was over par across the third and fourth rounds, and he scored 3-over at that. That’ll give you some indication of how bipolar his experience was at TPC Southwind overall. It’s an example of his transition to land a long-term bagman. There’s going to be inconsistency until things settle.

Justin Thomas ... Because of his firepower, he’s worthwhile at Caves Valley only if you’re a front-runner with two starts remaining. With only one top 20 in his last seven starts, he can spell others for whom you have one to burn at the Playoffs finale. He’ll then be on everyone’s short list at East Lake, where he owns a dazzling record, so plan on a push at worst.

Shane Lowry ... Essentially the same message as last week, that he fulfilled with a T59. The Irishman has been incredibly quiet for three months now, but he’s in good shape to advance to the TOUR Championship, where he could be tantalizing as a contrarian.

Sam Burns ... Up and down he goes. If he threatens matching his eighth-place finish at Caves Valley in 2021, it’ll hit more as a coincidence than course fit given the renovations. It’d also defy his most recent form after an extended stretch of leaderboard appearances. Although he’s only one slot lower than Lowry in the FedExCup at 24th, he’s about 77 points back and in much more jeopardy of advancing without a halfway decent performance. Therefore, allow him to navigate the pressure alone.

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