Horses for Courses: Expect past champs Chris Gotterup, Rory McIlroy to thrive again at Genesis Scottish Open

The golf world takes a trip across the pond to the birthplace of the game for the Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club. The event, co-sanctioned by the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour, is set to host some of the biggest names in golf ahead of The Open.

The par-70 layout is a unique mix of traditional links and what I like to call American links, with some tree-lined fairways worked into the design. Tom Doak added his own spin here, blending the way Americans view links-style golf with the roots of traditional links golf.

Despite the length of the course, the number of trees and bunkers scattered around the property, the true story here is the location. Sitting just off the coast, the biggest factor in player performance will be the weather.

While the forecast is not overly concerning this week, there are days when wind gusts could climb above 20 miles per hour. That means golfers will need to control the trajectory of their golf shots and keep the ball out of trouble.

What’s fun about this course is that the fairways are not all that difficult to hit, but the rough is thicker than on most links-style courses, and the greens are massive. The objective here, like at most links-style courses, is to play the ball down and use the ground as another weapon.

That is why golfers who succeed on links-style courses can usually replicate that success across a variety of similar setups. While strokes gained data in the core areas like off the tee, approach, putting and around the green are important, I also wanted to look at the best golfers on classic links-style courses over the last 12 rounds.

Here are the golfers with the most strokes gained at the most recent links-style courses (Data via Betsperts):

• 1. Scottie Scheffler
• 2. Xander Schauffele
• 3. Billy Horschel
• 4. Sam Stevens
• 5. Chris Gotterup
• 6. Rory McIlroy

Of course, a golfer like Rory McIlroy (+1000 at DraftKings) is going to be a horse for course at any links-style setup. Not only did he grow up in Ireland playing golf courses very similar to this, but his game fits this style perfectly. He is deadly long off the tee, and frankly that’s an incredible weapon on links courses. He is also a guy who loves to win national opens, so he is a very good shout here.

But the golfer I’m going to highlight and bet on is probably the one in the most awkward position to try to win this tournament. That is defending champion Chris Gotterup (+2800).

I like Gotterup to finish inside the top 20 (+140), and I also like him to win this golf tournament. I was going to bet him before he won the John Deere Classic last week, and I do not see any reason to back off now.

It is not like Gotterup is some flash in the pan who gets one win and then disappears for a year. He already has multiple wins this season, and his game fits this golf course very well. He is long off the tee, and with these wide fairways, even if he tends to struggle in tighter corridors, that is not as big a concern here.

He has proven that his low bullet runner is a weapon he can lean on, and he has been gaining just about everywhere. I also think the slower green speeds help him on the greens. He is by no means a terrible putter, but when golfers step onto slower greens, it becomes easier to read the breaks, leveling the playing field for most.

If there is anybody in this field who can repeat at a course like this, it is Gotterup. At this price, it still feels a little mismanaged to me.

Over the last three editions of this tournament, the golfers who had the most success, surprisingly, were not the ones gaining the most strokes on approach. Instead, the biggest separators were off the tee, with putting occasionally becoming a major factor as well.

The players who performed best were big-time gainers off the tee and at least slight gainers on approach. That makes it really important to factor in who has been strongest off the tee over the last 36 rounds.

• 1. Michael Brennan
• 2. Rory McIlroy
• 3. Scottie Scheffler
• 4. Xander Schauffele
• 5. Doug Ghim
• 6. Kristoffer Reitan

Best Value on the Board

• Rory McIlroy, Top 5 (+210 including ties) | Top 10 (+120)

It feels like common knowledge at this point that McIlroy loves national opens. Whether it is the RBC Canadian Open, The Open Championship, the Irish Open or the Genesis Scottish Open, it feels like he has collected a title at just about all of them. He elevates his game when there is pride attached to a country’s open.

He already won this tournament in 2023, and across his three starts here, McIlroy has a win, a T4 and a runner-up. A large part of that success comes from the fact that he is one of the most dangerous golfers in the world off the tee.

I think McIlroy is going to win this week, but I have had a difficult time building outright betting cards when a golfer starts around +1000. It just does not leave you much room for additions or taking shots on bigger prices.

McIlroy’s body of work this season has been pretty good. Yes, it has been a little inconsistent, but you can still see his game trending in the right direction. At the very least, his game still looks focused after completing the career Grand Slam last year.

He already won the Masters in repeat fashion. He finished T7 at the PGA Championship, where it might not have been his best stuff, and then

followed that up with a T12 at the Memorial Tournament presented by Workday, where the putter held him back.

Am I slightly concerned about him losing strokes on approach at the U.S. Open? Sure. But as I said earlier, approach play is not everything here, and McIlroy has the resume at this course to believe he is live in both of these bets.

At this point in his career, it feels like McIlroy picks and chooses where he wants to be deadly and where he wants to lock in. I believe this week and The Open are spots where we get full-send Rory, which gives him value at these prices.