Draws and Fades: Time to buy low on Americans to rally at Presidents Cup

MEDINAH, Ill. – Everything that could go wrong for the Americans did go wrong Friday at the Presidents Cup.

Veteran ball-strikers faltered. Putts lipped out at key moments. Unproven Internationals combatants stepped up at just the right time, and the top player in the world was toppled.

It added up to a 5-0 sweep of Foursomes matches, giving the International Team an unexpected 7-3 lead heading into a pivotal day at Medinah Country Club, Course No. 3.

The U.S. Team opened the week as -450 favorites to win the Presidents Cup for the 11th straight time, and that price got out to -650 after the home team built a 3-2 lead on Thursday. But now that the script has flipped, the Internationals are actually betting favorites to win for the first time since 1998.

Odds to win Presidents Cup (via DraftKings Sportsbook)

• -110: International Team
• +126: U.S. Team
• +850: Tie (15-15)

Looking ahead to Saturday’s quartet of Four-ball matches, the U.S. is favored in each individual match – just as they were in each of the previous 10. It’s clear, then, in the eyes of oddsmakers, that they expect Captain Brandt Snedeker's bunch to eventually find their footing in the overall competition.

So is this an opportunity to buy low on the home team to lift the trophy? I tend to side with Snedeker’s frequently-issued precept that the competition is not even halfway over yet, with 20 points still up for grabs. It’s hard to envision a day going worse for the Americans than what we saw on Friday, and my expectation is that the U.S. Team turns the tide in their favor over the eight total matches being played on Saturday. They’ll certainly be the betting favorite in a vast majority of the 12 Singles matches come Sunday.

The Internationals have impressed through two days, but from a betting perspective this feels like an opportunity to back the Americans at a steep discount. Take the U.S. to win the Presidents Cup (+126).

Let’s take a look at the four morning matches, as the scene shifts back to Four-ball:

Justin Thomas/Jackson Koivun (-135) vs. Min Woo Lee/Sungjae Im (+106)

This is an incredible dichotomy, as Thomas largely carried Koivun on Thursday but was one of the worst players on the course on Friday. Im has been impressive through two matches, and this feels like a real opportunity for the Internationals to build upon their momentum. Thomas relished a leadership role with Koivun on the opening day, and the two will look to put a charge into the crowd by batting leadoff. I remain skeptical, though, as to how much Thomas’ form will bounce back – and how much Koivun will offer to help him out.

Pick: Lee/Im +106

Wyndham Clark/Collin Morikawa (-135) vs. Si Woo Kim/Tom Kim (+106)

Snedeker is sticking to his guns, putting Clark and Morikawa out for the third straight session. There’s no denying that Clark has been one of the best Americans through the first two days, but they’ll have their work cut out for them in order to knock off the Kim duo who won each of their first two matches together. This match may hinge on how much Morikawa can bring to the table, as he was largely solid tee-to-green on Friday after a disappointing opening performance but then missed a trio of putts at the worst possible time while their Foursomes match slipped away. This match offers him a chance at redemption, and Clark won’t need much encouragement to lean into what he hopes will be a rowdy and supportive home crowd.

Pick: Clark/Morikawa (-135)

Chris Gotterup/Cameron Young (-235) vs. Nick Taylor/Corey Conners (+178)

Should Gotterup and Young be favored here? Sure. Should they be nearly a -250 favorite? That remains to be seen. Gotterup in particular didn’t play great in his opening match and then sat all day Friday, while the Canadians are flying high after their unexpected upset against Scheffler and Burns. Should they put another point on the board, they likely won’t need to buy a beer north of the border anytime soon, but doing so will likely require a bevy of made putts given the chances that the long-hitting American duo are expected to create.

Pick: Gotterup/Young (-235)

Scottie Scheffler/Sam Burns (-250) vs. Hideki Matsuyama/Ryo Hisatsune (+192)

Quite simply, it’s hard to envision an American rally that doesn’t include a victory in this match. Scheffler and Burns were wobbly in their opening match, but the world No. 1 Scheffler was stellar on Friday despite their narrow defeat. It’s nothing but upside for the Japanese pairing, with Matsuyama proving a steady force and Hisatsune grinning ear-to-ear at the mere opportunity to join with his countryman. They were successful in their Thursday match together, but this is a far different task – and Scheffler and Burns don’t need anyone to explain to them how critical this point could be given the overall state of affairs.

Pick: Scheffler/Burns (-250)