Draws and Fades: Brooks Koepka feels like man to beat in Canada

Round 1 of the RBC Canadian Open is in the books outside Toronto, with six players tied for the lead who took advantage of the gettable conditions at TPC Toronto. The softened fairways invited aggression with a scoring average of 68.5, better than any single round we saw at this venue in 2025.

Brooks Koepka and Sam Burns headline the crowded logjam at 6-under, both doing their damage late in the afternoon. Burns picked up right where he left off at this venue last year, and Koepka caught fire, making four birdies over his final five holes.

Morning rainfall made the greens more receptive, turning TPC Toronto into a green-light special for ball strikers. But much like last year, scoring spikes for players hinged directly on the putter. Five of the top six players who are tied for the lead finished the day 11th or better in strokes gained putting.

Updated odds to win the RBC Canadian Open tell an important story, with FanDuel making Sam Burns a comfortable favorite at +500. It’s a deep field packed with chasers that are within striking distance; the board gives us room to maneuver before Round 2.

The rest of the odds are as follows:

Updated odds to win the RBC Canadian Open (Via FanDuel)

• +500: Sam Burns
• +950: Brooks Koepka
• +1300: Eric Cole
• +1500: Sahith Theegala
• +1600: Tommy Fleetwood
• +1600: Matt Fitzpatrick
• +1600: Shane Lowry

Here are some value-driven plays to consider prior to Round 2.

Favorites: Brooks Koepka (+950)

Koepka feels like the man to beat this week. Gone are the days when concern about focus and stamina existed on non-Major weeks; he looks motivated and in terrific form. He was tops in the field in ball-striking over the last three months headed into this week.

He gained again today on approach and averaged 332 yards off the tee, showcasing his power and precision on the wide corridors of the North Course. A cooperative putter is the key to unlocking victory, and he seems much more comfortable with the new mallet that he began using at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson.

Sure, it’s natural to look ahead to next week, where he will be trying to “defend” at Shinnecock Hills where he won the U.S. Open in 2018, but Koepka is hungry to play his way into the lone remaining Signature Event and FedExCup Playoffs. A win in Canada the week prior to the U.S. Open would put the Koepka hype at a fever pitch.

Top-20 finish: Jackson Suber (+210)

Let’s talk about a player who had everything working on Thursday except the putter, but still managed to post a 4-under par 66. Jackson Suber was 4th best in the field today from tee-to-green, and the normally reliable putter is poised to contend into the weekend at TPC Toronto.

Suber does two things really well. He hits it close with his wedges and long irons. Those two ranges are emphasized specifically at the North Course, which minimizes the impact of mid-iron play based on the abundance of holes that are either short or long, not much in between.

Suber has hit the top-20 mark in two of his last three events, and also finished T18 at the 2025 RBC Canadian Open after shooting the exact same opening round score. When some of the big names realize a win is out of reach, I would expect their focus to shift early to next week in New York, opening up a path for a player like Suber to slide comfortably inside the top 20.