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Draws and Fades: Value lurks beyond Scottie Scheffler’s name at East Lake

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Draws and Fades

Justin Thomas plays aggressive for 18th-hole birdie, first-round 64 at TOUR Championship

Justin Thomas plays aggressive for 18th-hole birdie, first-round 64 at TOUR Championship

    Escrito por Will Gray

    ATLANTA – After one round of the TOUR Championship, one thing’s for certain: If Russell Henley is going to putt like this, he’s three days away from lifting the FedExCup.

    Henley got off to a blistering start at East Lake Golf Club, holing 207 feet of putts – the highest mark of his TOUR career. The former Georgia product birdied each of the last three holes to post a 9-under 61, and he’ll take a two-shot lead into the second round of the 30-man event.

    Henley opened at +2700 at FanDuel Sportsbook to capture the winner-take-all event, and after his stunning performance on the greens in the opening round, he’s down to +450. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who opened with a 7-under 63 to sit two shots off the lead, remains the overall betting favorite.

    Updated odds to win the TOUR Championship (via FanDuel)

    • +105: Scottie Scheffler
    • +450: Russell Henley
    • +1100: Tommy Fleetwood
    • +1400: Rory McIlroy
    • +1600: Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas
    • +2000: Collin Morikawa
    • +2200: Robert MacIntyre
    • +2700: Ludvig Åberg

    While Henley’s early lead is notable, it’s not insurmountable – particularly with the man in closest pursuit. It’s also unlikely that he’ll be able to pick up another 5.355 shots against the field on the greens.

    Scheffler birdied each of his last two holes to close out a bogey-free effort, and his outright price has only dwindled. There’s also a trio of former FedExCup champs in close pursuit – McIlroy, Thomas and Cantlay – in addition to Fleetwood (64), who remains in search of his long-awaited TOUR win.


    Scottie Scheffler sinks 27-foot birdie at TOUR Championship

    Scottie Scheffler sinks 27-foot birdie at TOUR Championship


    While 30 players remain in the mix, only the nine players listed above have outright odds below +6500. So let’s take a look at some markets – and bets – that make sense heading into Round 2, where tee times will be adjusted to avoid incoming storms.

    Justin Thomas (+1600) to win

    I remain bullish on Thomas, who putted better than anyone in the field not named Henley. A FedExCup champ from eight years ago, he shot a 6-under 64 despite making a mess of the short 16th hole en route to a double bogey.

    Thomas struggled in the majors but otherwise has had a stellar season, capped by his win at the RBC Heritage. Now he trails only Henley and Scheffler, lodged in a five-way tie for third. He knows that the contenders have begun to separate from the field in the outright market and understands that he is firmly in that lead pack.

    Few can match Thomas’ track record at East Lake, which includes five top-five finishes and a 67.81 lifetime scoring average. Expect him to correct a few miscues off the tee, and with Scheffler pushing his outright priced close to even money, this emerges as an eye-catching option.

    Ben Griffin (+450) Top 5 Finish

    Griffin got off to a solid start Thursday, posting a 4-under 66 that left him five shots back in a tie for eighth. It was a very Ben Griffin round – nothing too surprising, but everything in sound shape. He gained strokes in three of the four major Strokes Gained categories, sitting only slightly below average with his iron play.

    Griffin is one of several players in the field with Ryder Cup ambitions, hoping for a call from Keegan Bradley in a few days’ time. He’s putting up strong results at just the right time, finishing T12 or better in each of his last three starts. If he continues on his current trajectory, he should remain very much in the mix for a top-five result by Sunday.

    Rory McIlroy Under 67.5 in Round 2 (-140)

    Yes, it’s a little juicy, but I’m looking to back McIlroy after he successfully called bank on the 18th hole. A bladed wedge from the bunker turned into a birdie after he caught more than a good break from a friendly bounce off a greenside grandstand.


    Rory McIlroy bounces shot off grandstand, converts birdie at TOUR Championship

    Rory McIlroy bounces shot off grandstand, converts birdie at TOUR Championship


    The closing theatrics brought a smile to the Ulsterman’s face, but the prior 17 holes weren’t exactly chopped liver – even if he wasn’t able to keep pace with Scheffler. McIlroy was third in SG: Off-the-Tee, fifth in SG: Approach and simply had a tough time getting the ball in the hole from there. Still, it added to a 4-under 66 that would’ve cashed this prop and now he’ll have a chance to attack a course that will have been softened by overnight rains. Look for him to get it back to the house in 67 or better.

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