Making case for Jason Day, other chasers as Sepp Straka dominates The American Express

With a round to go Sepp Straka looks all but certain to cruise to a victory at The American Express but stranger things have happened on the PGA TOUR and perhaps the chase pack shouldn’t give up the fight.

The two-time TOUR winner Straka put up his second 64 in a row, this time at La Quinta Country Club, to move to a commanding 23-under. It left him four shots clear of the nearest chasers with just a round to play back on the PGA WEST Pete Dye Stadium Course.

Those closest to the European Ryder Cupper at 19-under are former world No. 1 Jason Day, former champion at The American Express Charley Hoffman and Justin Lower, who chases his first TOUR win.

Mark Hubbard (18-under) plus former FedExCup winners Patrick Cantlay (18-under) and Justin Thomas (17-under) have yet to count themselves out.

FanDuel Sportsbook has all but conceded a Straka win with the Austrian sitting at -165 to win. The chaser’s odds are as follows:

• -165: Sepp Straka (-23, first)
• +900: Jason Day (-19, T2)
• +1000: Patrick Cantlay (-18, T5)
• +1200: Charley Hoffman (-19, T2); Justin Lower (-19, T2)
• +1600: Justin Thomas (-17, 7th)
• +2000: Mark Hubbard (-18, T5)
• +6500 or higher: The rest of the field

The reality here is that Straka looks well set up for victory. He navigated the Stadium Course on Friday in 8-under 64 and has yet to make a bogey all week. We expect he will be able to hold off the chasers if he just maintains some semblance of the form he’s shown over three rounds, given he’s been there and done that on TOUR before. But if you think he’s vulnerable, here is a reason why each chaser might just find a way.

Jason Day +900

Leads the field in Par 4 Scoring, Total Hole Outs, 3-Putt Avoidance and is second in Putting Average. Former world No. 1 with 13 TOUR wins.

“Everyone's going to tighten up over the final stretch, usually on Sundays scores tighten up and they're not as good as what you would see at the start of the week," Day said. "If I put on another one like I did today, then I'm hoping that's enough."

Patrick Cantlay +1000

Birdied the last three on the Stadium Course Saturday to get back in it. Prior top 10s in 2019, 2021 and 2022 with ’21 a runner up. Second in the field for Total Birdies.

“No adjustments (tomorrow) at all," Cantlay said. "I got off to a slow start my front nine at La Quinta, which is a sin this week, you got to torch La Quinta. But I played really well since then, and so I'll keep that momentum hopefully into tomorrow.”

Charley Hoffman +1200

The 2007 champion was also runner-up in 2015. Tied for lead in the field in Front 9 Scoring and 3-Putt Avoidance this week.

“Shoot the lowest number, that's going to be the key," Hoffman said. "I'm going to have to make some putts. I'm hitting it great, so take advantage of the opportunities that I have and hopefully it's the lowest number coming in.”

Justin Lower +1200

Tied for lead in the field in Back 9 Scoring and 3-Putt Avoidance this week. Leads field in the distance of putts made per round. Second in Birdie or Better Percentage.

“I feel like I can do it, it's just a matter of actually doing it … that's kind of a hefty margin there, but it's possible, I mean, the way the greens are and everything, a bounce here or there, it could happen," Lower said. "I'm going to go out and try to be as aggressive as I can, and I feel like as long as I can get it on the green, I feel like I have a chance. I feel really good with the putter, so, and it's always been one of my strengths, so just try to get to on the green as quick as possible and go from there.”

Justin Thomas +1600

Owns a share of the Stadium Course record 61 from a year ago when he finished T3. Tied for lead in 3-Putt Avoidance this week and is T3 in Bogey Avoidance. A 15-time TOUR winner and two-time major winner. Knows how to find a win.

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