Fading big names on crowded Wells Fargo leaderboard

Of the 68 players that made the cut at the Wells Fargo Championship, only seven of them shot an over-par round Friday at Quail Hollow Club. One of my wagers, pre-tournament, was the 72-hole winning score to be UNDER 271.5, meaning 13 under par or better would win this golf tournament. With the way those above the cut line are playing, combined with the perfect weather, that bet is looking good at this point. But, like they say, "Lotta golf left."

Yes, 36 holes (at least) remain before we crown a winner at Quail Hollow. Earlier in the week, rain was in the forecast in the Charlotte area for Saturday. That looks to have now shifted to Monday or Tuesday. It looks like temperatures will remain in the 70's with very little wind to speak of.

Even with scoring conditions so favorable, Quail Hollow is still showing plenty of teeth. The top of the leaderboard is very much a mixed bag. Top-ranked players Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, and Sungjae Im all reside in the top four. Nate Lashley is ranked 209th in the OWGR and is tied with Hatton for the lead at 8 under. Michael Kim is ranked 241st and is just two shots off the pace, tied for 10th place.

Other players ranking outside of the Top 50 in the OWGR and on the first page of the leaderboard include J.J. Spaun and Adam Svensson. Wyndham Clark is tied for the lead with Lashley and Hatton. Clark has three top-6 finishes in his last five starts, including a sixth-place finish at Puntacana on a course, like Quail Hollow, that was also designed by Tom Fazio. Lurking a little further back is two-time champion Max Homa at 5 under, and both Patrick Cantlay and Gary Woodland at 4 under par.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+650: Tyrrell Hatton, Xander Shcaufelee

+700: Justin Thomas

+800: Sungjae Im

+1000: Wyndham Clark

+1800: Max Homa

+2000: Adam Scott, Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood

+2200: J.J. Spaun, Adam Svensson

+2500: Nate Lashley

Heading into the weekend, here are a few players who I believe will make a move – and others who I am betting will not.

Draws

Wyndham Clark (+1000)

I mentioned that Clark has been playing very well as of late. It looked like he might get his first TOUR win a few weeks ago in New Orleans but was not able to slam the door shut on Sunday alongside Beau Hossler. Near-misses like that can be great learning experiences on TOUR, and I believe that will help him here this weekend. I also like his apparent comfort on a Fazio design.

What he's been doing so far has been very steady. He has shot two straight 67's and he's made only three bogeys through 36 holes. Every aspect of the game is going well right now. Putting, Driving Distance - he's hitting greens in regulation - and when he's not hitting the surface in regulation, Clark is scrambling well, ranking 12th in the field through two rounds.

His driving accuracy has been very shaky but so far, he’s been able to overcome it. I don’t feel this is a tough area of the game for Clark to correct – nor do I believe his accuracy can get much worse. He’s currently seventh in the field for Strokes Gained: Approach. If he straightens out the driver just a little bit, Clark may have even more looks at birdie.

J.J. Spaun (+2200)

Like Clark, Spaun too has been playing very steadily so far. His putting has gotten progressively better each day, but not too far off in one direction that it has me thinking regression is in order. He's No. 1 in the field right now for Driving Accuracy and is still sending it out there off the tee, nearly 310 yards on average. Spaun ranks sixth in the field for Greens in Regulation. He doesn't appear to be getting too much respect in the market, just one shot off the lead, and yet he's being priced more than twice as high as Clark and almost quadruple the price that is being offered on Hatton. He may not go on to win, but it's a pretty nice number for a guy just one shot back.

Gary Woodland (+6600)

If we are going to try for a long shot, I believe Woodland is a good choice. He has shot a very solid 2-under par 69 in two straight rounds. He is No. 1 in this field currently for SG: Tee to Green and ninth in SG Approach. We know he has plenty of distance off the tee but his accuracy could be better, hitting just over 53% of fairways so far. The big deal, however, is his putting. Woodland is losing almost three strokes to the field putting through just two rounds. Putting is typically the most volatile aspect of the game. If he straightens out his driver even just slightly - but then also starts to get hot with the putter, or even just not be so cold - Woodland will make a run. He's finished Top 5 here twice in the past and I could see that happening again.

Fades

Xander Schauffele (+650)

Of the big-name players at the top of the leaderboard, I feel Schauffele’s price is the worst value. Heading into Saturday, there are 25 players within four shots of the lead. That is over 35% of the remaining field. Schauffele isn’t even in the lead (he’s one shot back) and his price is the same as Hatton’s, who does hold a share of the lead and is the 18th-ranked player in the OWGR. I feel like we may be a bit overboard on Schauffele, enough to keep me away from backing him.

Schauffele has also been a little scattered with his game through two days. On Thursday, he gained over two strokes putting on the field. On Friday, that was chopped in half, gaining just a shade over one stroke on the field. He gained nearly a full shot in SG: Around the Green on Thursday and yet lost over half a shot on Friday. Hitting greens in regulation has been decent, not excellent. It’s been a little bit of a wild ride, and to be at 7 under for the tournament, maybe Schauffele is somewhat fortunate right now.

Patrick Cantlay (+2000)

Cantlay has been a bit haphazard as well through the first two days. On Friday, his round consisted of four birdies and four bogeys. Typically a huge strength for Cantlay, he finished an uncharacteristic 65th in this field for SG: Off the Tee on Friday. He lost strokes to the field around the green and on approach. The putting has been fine, but his scrambling has been below average and he's 47th in this field through two days for Greens in Regulation.

Here is a guy who, like Schauffele, looks a little shaky, but is priced shorter than 18 other players who are currently in the Top 20 and are either tied or ahead of Cantlay for the tournament. Like Schauffele as well, it seems we are paying a premium to back Cantlay.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.