Horses for Courses: Prioritize players who can score at Oakmont
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Golfbet Roundtable: New course conditions for the U.S. Open?
Written by Mike Glasscott
The 125th United States Open returns for a record-setting 10th edition at Oakmont Country Club outside of Pittsburgh. The last time Oakmont hosted the national championship in 2016, Dustin Johnson (+15000) posted 4-under-par 276 to win by three shots and claim his first major championship.
Nine years later, 2024 champion BrysonDeChambeau (+700), the winner at Pinehurst No. 2 last spring and at the September 2020 event at Winged Foot, is the second choice at the FanDuel Sportsbook. His two victories are his only two top-10 paydays, but he finished T15 in 2016 at Oakmont in his first major championship as a professional. He joins Scottie Scheffler (+270) as the only two players to place in the top 10 in the first two major championships of the season. Another championship this week would add his name to the history books. He would join Brooks Koepka (+5500), who cashed T13 in 2016, Curtis Strange (1988-89), Ben Hogan (1950-51) and Ralph Guldahl (1937-38) as the only players to win the event in consecutive years.
Form of top players
Players listed below are competing this week.
Player (odds) | Top 10s at U.S. Open | U.S. Open made-cut streak | Majors made-cut streak |
Scottie Scheffler (+270) | 3 | 4 | 12 |
Bryson DeChambeau (+700) | 2 | 7 | 2 |
Jon Rahm (+1200) | 3 | 5 | 3 |
Rory McIlroy (+1200) | 9 | 6 | 2 |
Xander Schauffele (+2200) | 7 | 8 | 13 |
Ludvig Åberg (+2200) | 0 | 1 | MC PGA |
Collin Morikawa (+2500) | 2 | 4 | 6 |
Joaquin Niemann (+3000) | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Tommy Fleetwood (+4000) | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Justin Thomas (+4000) | 2 | 0 | MC PGA |
Shane Lowry (+4000) | 2 | 2 | MC PGA |
Sepp Straka (+4500) | 0 | 1 | MC-MC |
Patrick Cantlay (+4500) | 1 | 9 | MC PGA; 11/12 |
The 2011 champion Rory McIlroy (+1200) finished runner-up to DeChambeau in 2024 and to Wyndham Clark (+15000) in the 2023 event. After missing the cut at Oakmont in 2016 through 2018, the career Grand Slam winner racked up six consecutive top-10 paydays and counting.
The 2021 winner, Jon Rahm (+1200), missed the 2024 event due to a foot injury. The Spaniard was the low amateur at Oakmont in the 2016 event, signing for T23. After missing the weekend in his first two attempts as a professional, he cashed T23 or better, including four paydays of T12 or better, in his last five visits.
Xander Schauffele (+2200) cashed a paycheck in all eight starts and earned top-10 accolades seven times. His only podium finish was T3 in 2019, but his worst effort was T14 in 2022. Nobody who has played more than 20 rounds owns a better scoring average at the event. The Californian began his streak in 2017 and did not play in the 2016 tournament.
Strokes Gained: Total
Players listed below are competing this week; 2025 ranking
Rank | Player |
1 | Scottie Scheffler |
2 | Sepp Straka |
3 | Rory McIlroy |
4 | Justin Thomas |
5 | Shane Lowry |
7 | Tommy Fleetwood |
8 | Collin Morikawa |
9 | Patrick Cantlay |
10 | Bud Cauley |
Rob Bolton highlighted the difficulty of Oakmont in the 2007 and 2016 events in his Power Rankings. The 2025 edition, now tipping 7,372 yards (par 70) features expanded greens, additional strategic bunkering, and pinched landing areas, expanding the test. Rory McIlroy, who missed the cut in 2016, told the assembled media he posted 81 last week in a practice round that included two birdies on the final two holes.
Cambered fairways run off into over 160 bunkers and 5 inches of growing Kentucky Bluegrass/Ryegrass/Poa annua lush rough. The pure Poa annua putting surfaces, known for their incredible speed and slope, are protected by intricate bunkering that never allows a breath to be taken.
The hardest course in America does not have a water penalty area, but it does have the longest par 3, No. 8 at 289 yards, and the longest par-5 hole, No. 12 at 632 yards (which played 684 yards in 2016) in U.S. Open history. The shortest hole on the course is No. 13 at 182 yards.
There is nowhere to run and nowhere to hide.
As club founder Henry Fownes famously remarked: “A shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.”
All 14 clubs, plus the 6 inches between the ears, are the annual test at this event, but none are stronger than this layout.
Ángel Cabrera won the 2007 edition by posting 5-over-par 285.
Dustin Johnson, who led the field in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, was one of four players to break par in 2016. He circled just 11 birdies over four rounds.
Eight of the nine previous winners at Oakmont, including Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus and Johnny Miller, have won multiple major championships.
Other U.S. Open winners (year; odds) competing
- Wyndham Clark (2023; +15000) joined Lucas Glover by winning the event after qualifying for the weekend for the first time.
- Matt Fitzpatrick (2022; +10000), currently on a run of nine weekends from 10 starts, picked up his only top-10 result, winning the 2022 edition at The Country Club by one shot over Scottie Scheffler.
- Gary Woodland (2019; +30000) halted Koepka’s three-peat with victory at the 100th anniversary of Pebble Beach Golf Links and earned T10 in 2022.
- Jordan Spieth (2015; +6000) was the last man to win the Masters and U.S. Open in the same year. The champion at Chambers Bay has found the weekend in nine of 13 attempts, but his victory is his only payday in the top 15.
- Justin Rose (2013; +11000) won the U.S. Open in Pennsylvania outside Philadelphia at Merion. The Englishman was 11-over in 2007 and shared 10th place before missing the weekend in 2016. He has not qualified for the weekend in four of his last five visits but owns five top-10 paydays from 19 starts.
- Lucas Glover (2009; +27000) won the 2009 edition on his fourth attempt and first time qualifying for the weekend. It’s his only top-10 result from 16 tries.
Top U.S. Open scoring averages (minimum eight rounds)
Players listed below are competing this week; 2025 ranking
Rank | Player | Scoring average |
1 | Xander Schauffele | 70.19 |
2 | Guido Migliozzi | 70.50 |
3 | Collin Morikawa | 70.55 |
4 | Brooks Koepka | 70.67 |
5 | Scottie Scheffler | 70.79 |
6 | Rory McIlroy | 70.94 |
7 | Hideki Matsuyama | 71.11 |
8 | Jon Rahm | 71.21 |
T9 | Tommy Fleetwood | 71.22 |
T9 | Denny McCarthy | 71.22 |
11 | Patrick Cantlay | 71.33 |
12 | Bryson DeChambeau | 71.39 |
U.S. Open notables
- The field of 156, highlighted by world No. 1 Scheffler, includes 49 of the top 50 from the Official World Golf Rankings. Billy Horschel (hip surgery) is the only player missing.
- The last player to win on debut was Francis Ouimet (1913).
- Five of the last six winners of this event are first-time major champions.
- The youngest winner is John J. McDermott, 19 (1911).
- The oldest winner is Hale Irwin, 45 (1990).
- John Goodman was the last amateur winner (1933).
- Koepka and DeChambeau are the only two-time winners in the field.
- Clark and Lucas Glover are the only players to win their first time making the cut.
- After two rounds, the field will be cut to the 60 and ties.
- There has not been a playoff since 2008. The new playoff format will be a two-hole aggregate followed by sudden death, if the players remain tied.
Oddsmaker’s extras
- Scottie Scheffler (+270): With a victory this week, he would be the first player since Koepka in 2018 to win consecutive major championships. After sharing second in 2022 and running third in 2023, it’s almost unfathomable to remember he posted four rounds ABOVE PAR and cashed T41 last spring at Pinehurst.
- Shane Lowry (+4000): Leading the 2016 event by four shots after 54 holes on 7-under-par, the lowest total ever at Oakmont after three rounds, he was caught and passed by Johnson and settled for a share of second place. He would win his first major championship at Royal Portrush three summers later. In the last two U.S. Opens he’s cashed T19 and T20.
- Jason Day (+12000): The Australian’s power and elite short game saw him produce five top-10 paychecks from his first six starts, including his last one, T8, in 2016. He has not qualified for the weekend in four of his next six, including 2023 and 2024.
- Patrick Cantlay (+4500): The good news is he has never failed to qualify for the weekend in nine tries. The bad news is he owns one top-10 result, T3 in 2024 at Pinehurst No. 2, but it was his fourth consecutive top-15 payday.
- Harris English (+9000): Qualifying for his first U.S. Open weekend in 2014, he has brought home a paycheck from all nine events he entered. Three top-10 results from his last five include solo third in 2021 following solo fourth in 2020. He shot nine-over to earn T37 in 2016, one of 31 players making the return visit in 2025.
- Collin Morikawa (+2500): In the last four years, he’s earned T14-T14-T5-T4.
- Tommy Fleetwood (+4000): The Englishman racked up T16 at Pinehurst after earning T5 in Los Angeles, his third top-five payday.
- Hideki Matsuyama (+7000): The only time he did not qualify for the weekend in 12 career starts was 2016. His 11 other starts resulted in T35 or better, including sixth in 2024 and fourth in 2022, his recent bests.
- Brian Harman (+22000): The Open Champion from 2023 has cashed in seven consecutive events at the U.S. Open.
- Guido Migliozzi (+100000): Making his third visit, the Italian collected T4 in 2021 and T14 in 2022.
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