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4D AGO

Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler shortest betting favorite in a major since Tiger Woods in 2009

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Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy’s best shots of the year... so far

Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy’s best shots of the year... so far

    Written by Mike Glasscott

    PGA champion and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (+280) rightly takes his place as the prohibitive betting favorite at the U.S. Open, but he has entered some rarified air.

    Scheffler will pace the field as the scene shifts to Oakmont Country Club in the Pittsburgh suburbs for the 10th time, the most in the event’s history. Scheffler’s pre-tournament price at FanDuel Sportsbook has tumbled in the wake of his win at Quail Hollow, and this week he’ll tee off as the shortest betting favorite in a major since Tiger Woods at the 2009 PGA Championship.

    Scheffler is one of just two players of the 156 entered who landed in the top 10 in the first two majors this season. Making his 13th start of 2025, he has won three of his last four and has posted nine top-10 results, including finishing fourth at the Masters. Oakmont presents America’s toughest test throughout the bag, especially on the greens, but Scheffler has the full arsenal to add his fourth major championship and third of four legs of the career Grand Slam. Nobody gains more strokes total, off the tee, or into the greens, and the once balky putter now ranks 25th in Strokes Gained: Putting.

    Bryson DeChambeau (+700), the defending U.S. Open champion who also won in 2020, joins Scheffler as the only two players to cash top-10 paydays in the first two major championships. After securing T5 at the Masters, the 31-year-old could not run down Scheffler at the PGA Championship and settled for T2, his fifth top-six finish in his last six major championship appearances. DeChambeau joins 2017 and 2018 champion Brooks Koepka (+5000), the only two players with more than one victory competing this week.

    A record-setting winner in 2011, Rory McIlroy (+1100) enters the third major championship facing more questions than answers. Cashing in the top 10 in his last six U.S. Open appearances, including runner-up in both 2023 and 2024, the No. 2 player in the world did not fire in his previous two outings. The four-time winner at Quail Hollow Club on the PGA TOUR broke par once in four rounds (T47) during the PGA Championship in May. Twice a champion at the RBC Canadian Open in the last four editions, he struggled to find fairways, posted 71-78 and missed the cut for the first time on TOUR since The Open in 2024. The driver, his most trusted weapon, will need to behave, or it will be a long week playing out of 5 inches (and growing) rough and too many fairway bunkers, including the world-famous "Church Pews," to count.


    Rory McIlroy’s incredible Masters victory gives him 29 TOUR wins

    Rory McIlroy’s incredible Masters victory gives him 29 TOUR wins


    Apart from Scheffler, the top four players headlining the FanDuel odds have all won this event. Playing his final event as an amateur at Oakmont during the 2016 U.S. Open, Jon Rahm (+1200) finished T23 and earned Low Amateur honors. Returning in 2025, the Spaniard, who won the 2021 title at Torrey Pines South, owns 14 top-10 paydays from 29 cuts made in the four major championships. Cashing T12 or better in five of his last six appearances, the two-time major champion missed the 2024 event because of a foot injury. After closing out 2024 with T7 at The Open Championship, he began the 2025 majors campaign with T14 at the Masters. Last month at the PGA Championship, he caught eventual champion Scheffler with nine holes to go but could not keep pace and finished T8.

    The next tier of favorites features a pair of Californians, Xander Schauffele (+2200) and Collin Morikawa (+2500). Schauffele, who won the 2024 PGA and Open Championship, is searching for his first national title. He played the weekend in all eight starts and earned top-10 money seven times but never crossed the finish line first. The exception was the 2022 edition, played at The Country Club and won by Matt Fitzpatrick (+10000), where he cashed T14. Nobody with 20 or more rounds on the toughest layouts the USGA selects scores better (70.19). One of the most consistent players on TOUR annually, he has struggled this season swinging the driver (127th SG: Off the Tee) and more surprisingly, wielding the putter (139th SG: Putting). Making his 10th start of the year, he owns just one top-10 result, a T8 at the Masters. Morikawa, a two-time major champion in his own right, enters the week on better form (two runner-up finishes, three total top-10 results) but has been quiet since cashing T10 at THE PLAYERS Championship in mid-March. His record at the U.S. Open over the last four editions, all T14 or better, suggests his accuracy off the tee (second on TOUR in Fairways) and talent tee to green (fifth SG: Tee to Green) play on the biggest stage.

    The final two players to check in better than +4000 have produced interesting results in recent major championships. Ludvig Åberg (+3000) is making his seventh start in a major, but he has missed the cut in half of his previous six attempts. The Swede owns a solo second and T7 finish in his first two Masters and earned T12 at Pinehurst last summer in his first U.S. Open. He’s missed the cut twice at the PGA Championship, including last month at Quail Hollow, and did not find the weekend in his first Open Championship last July. His victory this season came on a demanding Torrey Pines South and his Masters results prove he can handle the best greens. Gaining shots off the tee (12th) is where he makes his money.

    Joaquin Niemann (+3300), who has made the cut in his last five major championship appearances, earned his first top-10 payday in 24 career starts at the PGA Championship in May (T8). The Chilean ball-striker, who did not qualify for the 2024 U.S. Open, did not miss the cut in his previous four visits from 2020-2023 and has advanced to the weekend in 16 of his last 19 major championships.

    Former U.S. Open champions in the field this week include Wyndham Clark (2023; +15000), Gary Woodland (2019; +22000), Jordan Spieth (2015; +5500), Justin Rose (2013; +10000) and Lucas Glover (2009; +22000).

    The winner of the 2016 U.S. Open at Oakmont was Dustin Johnson (+17000). He was joined in the top 10 by Shane Lowry (T2; +4000) and Jason Day (T8; +12000). The 2007 champion at Oakmont, Angel Cabrera, did not qualify.

    Red-hot Ryan Fox (+12000), a playoff winner in two of his last four starts on TOUR, is in the field, as is the man he beat in the RBC Canadian Open playoff, Sam Burns (+8000).

    Here's a look at the odds for other notable players, via FanDuel:

    • +4000: Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas
    • +4500: Patrick Cantlay
    • +5000: Sepp Straka
    • +5500: Viktor Hovland
    • +6500: Hideki Matsuyama
    • +7000: Corey Conners, Ben Griffin, Russell Henley
    • +10000: Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, Harris English

    For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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