OAKMONT, Pa. – It’s the U.S. Open. It’s Oakmont Country Club. It’s going to be difficult.

Players wrapped up their final preparations Wednesday on the outskirts of Pittsburgh, where the mix of slick and undulating greens and ankle-high rough are sure to drive players to the brink when the competition begins in earnest.

“We believe in the words ‘golf’s toughest test,’” said USGA CEO Mike Whan. “And if you believe in that, you’re going to be coming back to Oakmont pretty regularly. And we do.”

So what does that look like from a betting perspective, specifically relative to scoring? Pars are hard to come by this week, especially at Oakmont, and scoring on the par-70 layout is expected to tip on the wrong side of par for most players in the 156-man field. DraftKings Sportsbook has pegged the winning total at 278.5. Stay with me here, since verbiage on scoring Over/Unders can get tricky – but this line means a winning score of 2-under or better will cash the under and a winning score of 1-under or worse will hit the over.

Winning U.S. Open score (O/U 278.5)

• -125: 2-under or better
• -105: 1-under or worse

For context, Dustin Johnson won the 2016 edition at Oakmont with a score of 4-under, while the three-man playoff in 1994 featured players at 5-under – but that was a raw score of 279, as Oakmont played as a par 71 that week.

In 2007, things firmed up significantly and Ángel Cabrera won with a 5-over total.

Given the recent rains in the area, and the potential for more in the weekend forecast, it seems unlikely that the scores will reach 2007 levels of carnage – and, even with a demanding test, it seems likely at least someone will finish the week in red figures.

BET: Winning score: under 278.5 (-125)

The 36-hole cut, though, is sure to be on the wrong side of par. Keep in mind that, by the numbers, this is the hardest cut of the year to make: 156 players will be reduced to only the top 60 (plus ties) at the halfway point. In 2016, the cut line was 6-over. Nine years prior it was 10-over, while the cut in 1994 came at 6-over 148 (which would be 8-over this week).

That 8-over number is (roughly) the target for DraftKings oddsmakers, who set up a four-way market for predicting the cut line.

U.S. Open cut line score

• +130: 8 over
• +170: 7 over
• +475: 9 over or worse
• +800: 6 over or better

This feels like a bit of an overcorrection. While there’s no way to take the teeth out of the rough and undulating greens at Oakmont (let alone the church pew bunkers), the soft conditions early in the week should allow more balls to find the fairway. That, in turn, could help keep big numbers off the scorecard. It’ll shape up as an interesting sweat over dinner Friday night, but I’m intrigued by the longshot price tag for things to land just as they did nine years ago.

BET: Cut line score: 6 over or better (+800)

Then there’s the individual hole score markets – viewed from a group perspective. Birdies and eagles can be hard to come by, especially at Oakmont, but oddsmakers have afforded an opportunity to predict exactly where those numbers will land.

In terms of historical precedence, it’s a small sample size that varies wildly. In 2016, players made a total of 1,042 birdies and 19 eagles across the entire week. In 2007, though, those totals were a mere 267 birdies and two – TWO! – eagles.

Total birdies made at 2025 U.S. Open

• -310: Over 850.5
• -170: Over 900.5
• -105: Over 950.5
• +150: Over 1000.5
• +300: Over 1050.5
• +550: Over 1100.5

Total eagles made at 2025 U.S. Open

• -500: Over 9.5
• -310: Over 10.5
• -175: Over 11.5
• -125: Over 12.5
• +110: Over 13.5
• +150: Over 14.5
• +225: Over 15.5
• +400: Over 16.5

I’m of a mindset that play this week will more closely resemble 2016 than 2007, but the birdie market feels like a tougher number to pinpoint. Total number of eagles, though, catches my eye – particularly after six eagles were made on the short par-4 17th alone back in 2016.

BET: Over 12.5 eagles (-125)

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