OAKMONT, Pa. – The sunny skies and pristine temperatures Tuesday afternoon at Oakmont Country Club belie the challenge that awaits.

Once the ball goes in the air Thursday morning and scores get written in pen, little will be easily gained at the 125th U.S. Open. After all, this is Oakmont – it’s supposed to be hard.

Thanks to recent rains, which may return to factor over the weekend, one of the most demanding layouts in the USGA’s arsenal will have some extra muscle this week. The much-discussed rough will have plenty of bite, and the long holes will play a little longer. Throw into the mix the mental stamina that is required at this particular event – where it’s pars, not birdies, that are dearly sought – and it creates a captivating mix of variables to consider from a betting perspective.

The discussion, however, has to start with Scottie Scheffler.

The world No. 1 is entering a new stratosphere, even by his own standards – his +280 pre-tournament price at FanDuel Sportsbook is the shortest such price in a major since Tiger Woods at the 2009 PGA Championship. Anytime you’re faced with a realistic comp to peak Tiger, you’re doing something right – and the recency bias from him storming the field over the weekend at Quail Hollow en route to his third major title is surely playing a role in bettors’ activity.

DraftKings Sportsbook is, unsurprisingly, receiving Scheffler bets en masse. He represents 29 percent of the total money wagered and 24 percent of the tickets, or individual bets placed – at least 10 percent more than any other player in either category.

At this point, Scheffler seems borderline invincible – even by his lofty standards. Three wins out of his last four starts, not that far away from four out of four, and no weakness in sight on paper. But if there was a weak spot to his majors run last year, it came in this event. Scheffler finished T41 at Pinehurst, visibly frustrated by the rub-of-the-green dynamics in play with off-line shots bouncing between clean lies and tufts of wiregrass. The thick rough lining the fairways in Oakmont will provide a different dynamic, but one that can also prove unpredictable.

“There’s some areas, like the rough is so thick and healthy that sometimes it stays on top and you can actually get a club on it,” Scheffler said. “A lot of it totally depends on the lie. Sometimes you get a good one, and way more often than not, you’re going to get a bad lie every time you hit it in the rough.”

No one will be surprised if Scheffler lifts the trophy on Sunday – but betting him at these ultra-low prices is another story entirely. Between the unpredictability of the course, difficulty of the setup and general interest in fading the room given Scheffler’s most recent surge, I’m looking elsewhere for a betting card – and finding plenty of value.

Outright: Xander Schauffele (+2200)

Scheffler and McIlroy. McIlroy and Scheffler. Are we forgetting about the guy who won half the majors last year?

Yes, Schauffele was slow out of the gates in 2025 while rehabbing a rib injury. Yes, his driver has been a mess – he has dropped from 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee last year to 111th in the same category.

“I felt like I was playing at a pretty high level, then I got hurt,” Schauffele said. “My expectations of what I knew I could do to where I was were very different, and accepting that was tough.”

But this is still the player with the most consistent U.S. Open track record in the field this week – never worse than T14 in eight prior starts in this event. He understands and embraces the challenge set forth by tournament officials. The rest of his bag is in solid shape: he’s seventh in SG: Approach, putting up solid albeit unspectacular finishes. But should his driver show a bit of cooperation, he’s going to be in the mix at a price nearly 10x Scheffler’s offering.

Top 10: Sepp Straka (+360)

The burly Austrian is picking a good year to have a breakthrough. Twice a winner this year, including at a Signature Event last month, he’s a perpetual contender just in time to be a thorn in the side of the Americans come Ryder Cup time this September.

Straka ranks second on TOUR in SG: Approach, and while the commute is deceptively far across Pennsylvania from Philadelphia Cricket Club to Oakmont, there’s still some familiarity with his recent success in this part of the country. Straka nearly came from behind for a surprise win at the Memorial in his most recent start, only to be outgunned by (you guessed it) Scheffler, but the bona fides remain strong.

Top 20: Bud Cauley (+400)

Bump the Straka price and double the margin for error on Cauley to be on the fringe of contention as his strong season continues. Still looking for his first TOUR win, Cauley has four top-6 finishes in his last eight starts and hasn’t missed a cut since an early exit from the Puerto Rico Open in March. He hasn’t played a ton of majors, but in seven career starts, he has made the cut five times. Cauley ranks an impressive 10th this season on TOUR in SG: Total and is crisp enough tee-to-green (19th) to hang at Oakmont even if he’s middle of the pack in distance.

72-hole matchup: Russell Henley (-120) over Sam Burns

Burns comes in with some momentum, having shot a Sunday 62 before falling in a playoff at the RBC Canadian Open. But I’m siding with Henley in this SEC matchup, as the former Georgia product has finished T14 or better in three of the last four years at the U.S. Open.

When the conditions toughen up, Henley offers some of his best stuff – as seen this year at Bay Hill and, more recently, with a top-five finish at Muirfield Village. He’ll be able to jump up the leaderboard as the difficulty increases over the weekend.

Burns has been hit-or-miss this year, and while he finished T9 last year at Pinehurst, his major record is otherwise somewhat lacking. Henley is the more proven commodity in this arena, especially in a matchup where a top-10 or top-20 finish might be enough to cash a ticket.