Draws and Fades: Trust Austin Smotherman to emerge from pack in Lone Star State

Trace Crowe (+300) is your 54-hole leader at the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions. Crowe will attempt to go wire-to-wire for his first PGA Tour victory, but given what we saw from his play in the third round, it won't be smooth sailing for the young pro.

Despite finishing under par with a 1-under 71, Crowe carded five bogeys and was staring down the barrel of an over-par round. Had it not been for a hole-out birdie from the bunker on No. 17 and another birdie on the par-5 18th, we'd be having a much different conversation heading into Sunday.

Right now, most of the major sportsbooks give Crowe around a 38% chance to win this golf tournament. And it makes a lot of sense. If Crowe doesn't come out swinging in the fourth and final round, he could easily get caught. Three golfers are just one stroke back, with another six within three strokes of the lead.

It won't be an easy day for Crowe, and not just because of the nerves he'll be feeling overnight. It'll be an earlier start for everyone in the field, with final-round tee times moved up and golfers going off Nos. 1 and 10 because of forecasted inclement weather.

There are a couple of names on this leaderboard who I think have the game to come back and win this event. There's also a decent amount of winning experience near the top. With 14 golfers sitting T7 or better, Crowe has plenty of company, including players who already know what it takes to win on the PGA Tour.

Guys like Sami Valimaki (+600), Chad Ramey (+850), Kevin Yu (+2200), Erik van Rooyen (+700) and Rafael Campos (+5000) have all won on Tour. You better believe they'll be grinding to add another victory to their resumes.

Austin Smotherman, to win (+1800, FanDuel)

Of the golfers sitting around that 11-under range, I like Austin Smotherman the most to come back and win this event.

He's been absolutely electric with his irons, gaining strokes on approach all over the place, and that didn't stop in the third round. He gained the ninth-most strokes in the field on approach, and for the first time this week, he dominated with the putter, gaining 3.5 strokes with the flat stick, according to DataGolf.

In the opening round, it was a totally different story. Smotherman lost nearly two strokes putting while gaining nearly five strokes on approach, and somehow still ripped off a 5-under 67.

In the second round, his putter let him down again. He lost 2.96 strokes putting but still gained nearly three strokes on approach. Unfortunately, it wasn't a beautiful scoring round, finishing with just a 1-under 71.

That's why it was so nice to see him shoot a 5-under 67 in the third round. The approach numbers have been insane all week, and now we're finally seeing what happens when he gets something going with the putter.

Do I think he's going to go out there and win this golf tournament? Of course, I don't know. But man, if you've been following along all week and didn't grab some Smotherman before the tournament started, I have a really hard time not suggesting you throw at least a little pizza money on him at +1800.

Realistically, if you're looking for a shorter price, Valimaki at +600 is a guy who I think offers plenty of value.

Unlike Smotherman, Valimaki has been gaining a ton of strokes ball-striking, especially on approach, while backing it up with the putter. His putting hasn't been nearly as hot-and-cold as Smotherman's, and historically, Valimaki is a really good putter.

So, if you want a little more comfort at a shorter price, I have no problem suggesting Valimaki. Given his ties to the comparable courses we've discussed throughout the week, it makes a ton of sense.

But when I'm adding live tickets, especially this late in a tournament, I don't want anyone shorter than +1000.

I want to find someone offering a little more value further down the leaderboard. Typically, when we see a golfer come from behind and steal a tournament, it's someone sitting three or more strokes back, not necessarily the guy playing alongside the leader in the final pairing. And if the guy in the final pairing wins, we live with it.

That's just the way I want to add chips throughout the week.

Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen, Top 20 (-140, FanDuel)

Will the juice be worth the squeeze backing Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at -140 to finish inside the top 20? Maybe.

It would be his first top-20 finish on Tour since his T20 at the 3M Open back in July. He's had some success elsewhere, though, including a solo fourth-place finish at the Amgen Irish Open. Neergaard-Petersen isn't necessarily a perfect course fit. He's decently long off the tee, averaging 308 yards, and his driving accuracy is respectable at 65%. It's really his putter that gives me pause. He also hasn't been the most brilliant ball-striker this season, especially with his irons.

But he's done a fairly decent job scoring this week, and I think there's something to be said about his consistency. He hasn't needed to be spectacular in any one area. He's been relatively neutral with the putter, gained strokes around the green and contributed positively in other areas of his game.

He didn't exactly flash in the third round, shooting an even-par 72, but there's a reason I like his chances to put together a strong Sunday. Across his last 36 measured fourth rounds, there haven't been many golfers in this field who have gained more strokes than Neergaard-Petersen. He ranks second in the field in fourth-round Strokes Gained: Total.

Obviously, course fit plays a major role in whether this bet has value, but with Neergaard-Petersen currently sitting T20, I think a decent final round could easily push him somewhere around T15 and cash this ticket.

Naturally, I'd prefer to back him in a head-to-head matchup. Unfortunately, those bets weren't readily available at the time of writing. Still, I don't mind this price at all.

FanDuel is offering -140, which is 25 cents better than some competing sportsbooks. That gives us roughly four percentage points of additional implied-probability value compared with a -165 price.

Wherever you decide to put your money in the final round, good luck. Let's enjoy the conclusion of the inaugural Austin Championship.