Draws and Fades: Back Sami Valimaki’s course fit for top finish in Texas Hill Country

The second round of the Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions was suspended due to darkness, with Trace Crowe (+350) still leading. However, Crowe has yet to finish his round, with two holes remaining. He’ll have to return early Saturday morning to finish before resting up for the third round.

As it stands, Crowe holds a one-stroke lead over Kevin Yu (+610), who fired a blazing 6-under 66. Matching Yu’s 66 was Brian Harman (+750), who sits just two strokes back, giving some life to our in-play outright ticket.

We’ve been drawing parallels all week between Fazio Canyons and other courses on the PGA Tour schedule. I’ve gone back and forth on a few comparisons, but there’s one thing I can’t ignore: This leaderboard looks a lot like this year’s Valero Texas Open.

We already discussed the similarities to TPC San Antonio, and those comparisons are becoming more apparent. Just look at some of the names near the top. Harman won at TPC San Antonio in 2025. Kevin Yu finished seventh at the 2026 Valero Texas Open, and even Sami Valimaki (+2500) had a solid showing, finishing tied for 14th.

Would it be crazy to look at those golfers and see where we can find some value in their current market prices? I don’t think so.

From what I’ve seen, Fazio Canyons has played pretty straight up. You’re either going to play well here, or struggle. Sure, there are exceptions. Some golfers are losing strokes putting despite striking the ball beautifully, while others are putting out of their minds and masking some pretty poor ball striking.

But for the most part, golfers playing close to their baseline have shown pretty quickly whether they’re a good fit for this golf course.

I actually think that’s going to create some stickiness when it comes to course history. Not necessarily this week, because the sample size is far too small, but over the next few years, I think we’re going to identify a very specific type of golfer who consistently excels at Fazio Canyons.

Hit fairways, hit greens and roll in putts. It’s not complicated, but this course seems to reward golfers who can do all three.

Sami Valimaki, Top 10 (+150, FanDuel)

Valimaki is a guy who's done precisely that. He’s hit fairways, gained strokes on approach and rolled the putter well. Sitting T9, it might be a stretch to think he can keep this going for two more rounds, especially given what we’ve seen over the past couple of months.

However, I’m going to continue leaning on the course comparison to TPC San Antonio and believe Valimaki still has some strokes to make up.

He’s gained strokes in all three categories through both rounds, although his putting could have been better Friday. What really encourages me is his iron play. Valimaki has lost strokes on approach in far too many events recently, so gaining strokes on approach in back-to-back rounds is a promising sign.

Maybe something clicked. Maybe it didn’t.

But at +150 for a top-10 finish, I think we’re getting way too much value. This feels much closer to a coin flip, and I’ll gladly take my chances on a golfer who fits this course as well as Valimaki.

Doug Ghim, Top 10 (+550, FanDuel)

The second bet might be a little bit of a stretch, but at +550, I feel like we’re getting extra value compared to where this price should be.

Doug Ghim isn’t out of this tournament despite opening with a 1-over 73, where he massively struggled with his irons.

The funny thing about Ghim is how hot and cold his game can be, and that’s something we can use to our advantage.

After losing strokes on approach Thursday, Ghim was one of the best iron players in the field Friday, gaining nearly four strokes on approach en route to a 6-under 66.

I actually think that’s repeatable. Look at what he’s done over the past month or two. He’s contended, competed and played some really good golf.

The beauty of the Doug Ghim experience is that he can go out there, throw darts and make birdies without needing much from his putter. But there will come a time when he’ll need to gain strokes putting, and if that happens, he could surge up the leaderboard.

He didn’t gain strokes putting in the second round, but I think there’s a good chance that changes Saturday. If his irons are even remotely close to what we saw Friday, I could see him sitting somewhere around T3 heading into Sunday.

From there, we just need one more big round to cash this ticket.