Finland’s Sami Valimaki has The RSM Classic in his control, and with it a trip to the first two Signature Events of 2026, but with winds expected to dip Sunday, he still has Sunday stress ahead at St. Simons Island.

The third round provided the toughest test of the tournament thus far as the winds whipped up from the southwest, making finding fairways even more important. The gusts undid overnight leader Andrew Novak, who fell to a tie for fourth, his 70 leaving him at 16-under and three back.

Novak is now chasing Valimaki, who went from +900 overnight to the +160 clear favorite after a 5-under 65 put him 19-under.

Sitting two back at 17-under is a common contender at Sea Island in Patrick Rodgers (68). Rodgers was runner-up in 2019 and T10 (2023) and T17 (2024) in the last two seasons. Michael Thorbjornsen (68), T8 a year ago at Sea Island, also sits just two of the pace.

Zac Blair motored into the mix at 16-under with his second successive Seaside Course 64, joining Novak and Johnny Keefer (67).

John Pak (64), Si Woo Kim (65), Lee Hodges (66), Max McGreevy (66), Eric Cole (67) and Seamus Power (65) certainly can’t be discounted, but they have work to do at 15-under.

Sunday’s forecast is gentler, with the biggest potential adjustment to come with the breeze shifting out of the opposite direction. However, that change isn’t expected till late, and at gentle speeds.

As such, scoring can be expected to ramp up once again, giving chasers hope of a run to the title, a high-place finish, or perhaps a TOUR card. The current outright odds via DraftKings Sportsbook for those within four of the lead are as follows:

• +160: Sami Valimaki (-19, 1st)
• +450: Michael Thorbjornsen (-17, T2)
• +700: Patrick Rodgers (-17, T2)
• +1400: Andrew Novak (-16, T4)
• +1400: Johnny Keefer (-16, T4)
• +1600: Zac Blair (-16, T4)
• +2000: Si Woo Kim (-15, T7)
• +2800: Max McGreevy (-15, T7)
• +3000: Seamus Power (-15, T7)
• +3000: Eric Cole (-15, T7)
• +4000: Lee Hodges (-15, T7)
• +5500: John Pak (-15, T7)

Can Valimaki become the first player from Finland to win on the PGA TOUR? Can Rodgers finally break through for a win after four previous seconds and four thirds in his career? Can Thorbjornsen better his two runner-up results from his young career? Or will Novak bounce back from Saturday to get his first individual TOUR win?

Perhaps it will come from elsewhere altogether. You could consider the +2000 on Si Woo Kim as a lottery pick for example, he does like birdies in bunches.

But here's a couple of potential bets I’ll have my eye on ahead of the season’s final round.

Michael Thorbjornsen +450 outright

It’s not that I don’t like Valimaki, it’s that I love Thorbjornsen and believe he’s ready to convert after four top 5s this season. The 24-year-old who came out of the PGA TOUR University was third recently in Japan and was T8 here a year ago.

But I must admit this is as much a “feel” play as anything else. He’s been able to sit second this week despite being below his usual standards on approach, and if he can’t dial it in a little better on Sunday, it will be tough to go low like he did Friday (63).

I hope his strength off the tee continues, and I expect him to improve his second shot efforts and maintain his 3-Putt Avoidance.

Lee Hodges: Top 5 & Ties +260; Over on Birdies or Better

With his exemption from winning the 2023 3M Open ending after Sunday’s final round, Hodges is within striking distance of the top 100 in points to get another year on TOUR. Currently T7 this week, he projects to 104th, still outside.

But if he can jump into the top five at the end of Sunday, he’s a chance. This means Hodges will certainly face pressure, but it also ensures he will be switched on and fighting throughout the day.

The pressure could bring in mistakes, making the +260 for a top 5 a little risky, but I do think he can notch up some birdies under the blowtorch. As such, source and consider the over on his Birdies or Better Round 4 odds.