After two rounds of The RSM Classic, one thing is crystal clear: This tournament is nowhere near decided. Not one of Thursday’s leaders sits inside the top 10 heading into the weekend, a testament to how quickly the leaderboard at Sea Island can flip. Of the trio tied at the top after the first round, Davis Thompson, Rico Hoey and Doug Ghim, the best anyone could muster on Friday was a pedestrian 1-under from Ghim. He’s now T13, and five back.

Instead, it’s reigning Zurich Classic of New Orleans champion Andrew Novak who sits at the top of the leaderboard at 16-under after backing up an opening 61 with a second round 7-under 65. He’s also the favorite now at +300, followed closely by Michael Thorbjornsen (+340) and Patrick Rodgers (+600). With 21 players posting rounds of 7-under or better today, it was another “How low can you go?” birdie day. Calm wind and ideal scoring conditions gave golfers the green light at Sea Island. If you weren’t scoring, you were going backwards.

Saturday will be different, on the other hand. The entire field is set to play the Seaside course, and the wind is finally expected to show its teeth— even if it’s just slightly. Forecasts call for 10-15 mph winds with gusts touching 20. Historically, this event gets chaotic when the wind picks up. With full status for 2026 hanging in the balance for many hovering around the top-100 line, pressure will heighten.

Which means the chasers are far from out of it.

Sami Valimaki

Top European +100 | To Win +900

Of the two suggested plays, the safer and more appealing position is the Top European bet. But sitting at 14-under and only two strokes back of Novak, there’s nothing wrong with a light sprinkle on the outright as well. With the wind coming, this weekend feels like the type of setup where someone two or three shots back walks away with the trophy. Honestly, it wouldn’t shock me if someone six or seven back makes a run.

That puts Valimaki squarely in the hunt.

The nearest threats behind him for the Top European bet are Jesper Svensson (+600) and Antoine Rozner (+900), both at 11-under and three strokes behind. Sure, they can close the gap, but given the current form of both, that seems unlikely.

Svensson has been inconsistent off the tee much of the season, and that leaky play has bled into his approach numbers. The putter hasn’t offered any relief either—he’s lost strokes putting in six straight measure starts. Even with a strong round on Friday, the overall picture is murky. He hasn’t posted a top-10 finish since the early part of the season. Based on the way his game is trending, I have him projected outside the top 10 again this week.

Rozner comes with his own volatility. He’s capable of the occasional surge in the middle of the tournament, but the results haven't followed. He finished T58 last week in Bermuda, and before that, he missed four consecutive cuts on the PGA TOUR. That’s a tough profile to trust when the wind picks up and the scoring becomes more difficult.

Yet, the bet is less about what Svensson and Rozner can’t do and more about what Valimaki is doing well. He’s as in-form as anyone in the field; he will ride that moment even when conditions worsen.

Valimaki has proven he can handle the wind. He won the 2020 Oman Open in brutal wind, and just last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, he withstood the windy conditions, finishing inside the top 20. That experience matters this weekend when the Seaside course starts showing its coastal teeth.

Statistically, he profiles well, too. While he's not the longest or most accurate driver in the field, he consistently gains strokes off the tee. Combine that with a confident putter, especially from inside 10 feet, and a streaky ceiling that can catch fire without warning, and you have a player who is built to go low.

On a course like Sea Island, that’s exactly the recipe for a serious weekend charge.

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