Draws and Fades: Look to secondary markets in what amounts to two-horse race at BMW Championship
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Highlights | Round 3 | BMW Championship
Written by Joe Idone
The third round of the BMW Championship began with only one player within five shots of Robert MacIntyre’s lead. It ended the same way. That, in itself, makes Saturday a big win for MacIntyre, but he still has 18 holes to go.
Sunday afternoon, he’ll square off once again in the final pairing with the world No. 1. If anyone has the chin to go 10 rounds against Scheffler’s relentless jabs, it’s the bold Scotsman, fresh off a 3-under 67 capped by a 41-foot birdie on the 18th green.
Robert MacIntyre sinks a 41-foot birdie putt to take four-shot lead at BMW Championship
But the days are long and the nights short during tournament week, and he’ll be put to the test again tomorrow by Scheffler, who just ... keeps ... coming. Scheffler uncharacteristically missed fairways, particularly on the back nine, where he found only three of seven. He’ll likely have that cleaned up overnight with his sights firmly set on MacIntyre for 18 more holes on Sunday.
Ludvig Åberg fired a 3-under 32 on the back nine to climb into solo third, six shots back of MacIntyre. He’s within striking distance, but it will take something special on Sunday to make a move. With both MacIntyre and Scheffler leading the field in bogey avoidance this week, with just three apiece, it’s hard to see either of them going in reverse.
Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
- -190: Robert MacIntyre
- +185: Scottie Scheffler
- +2000: Ludvig Åberg
- +12500: Sam Burns
The odds board tells the story as FanDuel has essentially deemed this a likely two-horse race, but there are ample opportunities in some of the secondary markets to leverage for some Sunday value at Caves Valley.
Ludvig Åberg’s Round 3 highlights from BMW Championship
Favorites: Scottie Scheffler +185
A ruthless bludgeoning of greens in regulation and a surging putter have made Scheffler the most feared man in professional golf. It felt like the 2-under 68 that he fired on Saturday was the worst that he could have shot, and the Sunday charge feels a bit inevitable.
MacIntyre appears to relish testing his moxie against Goliath, fueled by the “USA” chants and opportunities to flash his brilliance around the greens. Maintaining the form is statistically more sustainable for Scheffler.
Scheffler has been the PGA TOUR’s undisputed closer on Sundays over the past six months. Surprise, surprise. The gap between him and the second-best player in Sunday scoring is more than 12 strokes, the same margin that separates No. 2 from No. 13. If MacIntyre so much as cracks the door, Scheffler will be ready to come barreling through in Maryland.
Winner without MacIntyre/Scheffler: Tommy Fleetwood +850
FanDuel has removed the final pairing and freshened up the odds board in this secondary market. Despite the sting of Memphis and scar tissue for those who backed Fleetwood last week, there’s reason to be optimistic in a Sunday push that brings value at +850.
Statistically, Fleetwood has been a reliable threat on Sundays when he isn’t protecting an overnight lead. He’s averaging +1.38 Strokes Gained: Total in final rounds over the past six months, the sixth-best mark in this week’s field.
He currently trails Åberg by three shots, but Fleetwood has been the best approach player among this group of contenders over the first three rounds. No pressure, no problem for Fleetwood, who will have his eyes on another PGA TOUR podium finish.
Top 10 Finish (including ties): Hideki Matsuyama +100
His card was unblemished through the first 36 holes, and Matsuyama was the only player in the field without a single bogey over the opening two rounds at Caves Valley. That all changed abruptly on Saturday, as Matsuyama carded four bogeys or worse in his first five holes en route to an abysmal 6-over 76.
On the greens, Matsuyama was the worst putter in the field, losing 3.88 strokes on Saturday. His struggles were summed up on the drivable par-4 11th, where a conservative layup with iron found the water. It was uncharacteristically bad, but at the same time, it provides reason for optimism if you trust the data.
He’ll likely need a 65 or better to climb back, a number he’s already posted this week with a sizzling 64 on Friday. Matsuyama tends to run hot on Sundays, and his fearless approach to tucked pin locations makes him a high upside play to crack the top-10.
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