Caves Valley Golf Club has shown its teeth in 2025, with the field grinding to an even-par scoring average through the first 36 holes. However, somebody forgot to tell Robert MacIntyre.

The burly Scotsman has scorched the course in just 126 strokes over two rounds, breaking the 36-hole benchmark set in 2021 despite far tougher conditions in Maryland this year. He’ll start Saturday in the driver’s seat, but a worthy pack with plenty of horsepower is giving chase, led by a fully tuned-up Scottie Scheffler, who’s looking to take control with his trademark brand of relentless, mistake-free golf.

The rain mid-afternoon on Thursday softened the greens, which helped fuel MacIntyre’s outrageous run of six straight birdies to close his opening round. The entire field benefited from a more receptive and soft golf course on Friday, thus improving the scoring average by over 1.5 shots in the second round of play.

Updated odds to win the BMW Championship (Via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +120: Robert MacIntyre
• +140: Scottie Scheffler
• +1000: Ludvig Åberg
• +2700: Hideki Matsuyama
• +3000: Tommy Fleetwood
• +3500: Rory McIlroy

A softer, more attackable Caves Valley could set the stage for fireworks on the weekend, tempting aggressive players who have their eyes set on closing the gap on MacIntyre.

Assuming that MacIntyre doesn’t run away with this tournament, there is value to be siphoned from the odds board at the halfway point if you believe in the chasers.

Favorite: Scottie Scheffler +140

Friday brought about another bogey-free round from Scheffler, his 13th of the season and best in the field as Scheffler shot a mistake-free 5-under 65. He was a part of the early/late wave that played Caves Valley in the toughest conditions, yet the world’s top-ranked player will find himself in the final pairing on Saturday with MacIntyre right in his sights.

He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, dominating with his driver through the first 36 holes in Maryland. Scheffler is averaging 329 yards (second-best in the field) and has hit 81% of fairways (third-best). He wears opponents down and feels inevitable, especially with this positioning at the halfway point of the tournament.

Over his last 50 weekend rounds, Scheffler has gained more than two strokes per round on the field. He’s not going anywhere, and even the slightest slip from MacIntyre will be magnified when playing alongside the best player in the world. Scheffler will make his move soon, and any chance to grab him at plus-money will vanish quickly. Take the +140 while it’s still on the board.

Longshot: Viktor Hovland +7500

How far back are you willing to go? I believe you need to be within 10 strokes of MacIntyre to have a shot, and you should target players capable of going nuclear and racking up birdies. Hovland fits that profile, and he led this tournament for a good stretch on Thursday before the afternoon wave enjoyed a much softer golf course following the rain delay.

He lamented multiple three-putts on Thursday that kept him from improving on his 67, but Hovland continues to display the kind of ball-striking that always puts him on the verge of a low round.

Hovland was one of the stronger course fits pre-tournament, and his odds to win have essentially tripled in value despite being only five strokes back of second place. If MacIntyre stumbles, a player like Hovland offers real value in chasing him down at +7500.

Top 5 Finish (Incl. Ties): Maverick McNealy +210

A 6-under 64 Friday, tied for the best round of the day, vaulted McNealy up the leaderboard. He’s currently in a tie for fifth place and has plenty to play for over the weekend.

Yes, he has putted extremely well over the first two rounds, leading the field in Strokes Gained: Putting through 36 holes, but this is sustainable for McNealy. When he’s confident on the greens, he becomes one of the most reliable putters on TOUR. Among all players currently in the top five in putting for the week, McNealy is the only one also ranked inside the top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach.

If that combination holds, it will be lethal this weekend at Caves Valley. McNealy is firmly in the mix and a strong plus-money option in the live Top-5 market at FanDuel.

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