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Draws and Fades: Ludvig Åberg rounding into form as live option in Scotland

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Draws and Fades

Highlights | Round 2 | Genesis Scottish Open

Highlights | Round 2 | Genesis Scottish Open

    Written by Will Gray

    We’ve reached the halfway point at the Genesis Scottish Open, and while an unexpected name is at the top of the leaderboard, there are several recognizable ones within striking distance.

    Chris Gotterup opened the week as a +10000 longshot this week at FanDuel Sportsbook, but after firing a 9-under 61 in the second round the former ONEflight Myrtle Beach champ will carry a two-shot lead into the weekend at The Renaissance Club and finds himself as the in-play betting favorite.

    But Gotterup has some company in the rearview mirror: Former U.S. Open champ Matt Fitzpatrick is T3, three shots back, as is Swedish sensation Ludvig Åberg. The winners at The Renaissance Club in 2022 and 2023 – Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy – sit five and four shots off the pace, respectively.

    Updated odds to win Genesis Scottish Open (via FanDuel)

    • +400: Chris Gotterup
    • +600: Rory McIlroy
    • +800: Harry Hall
    • +850: Ludvig Åberg
    • +900: Scottie Scheffler
    • +1000: Matt Fitzpatrick
    • +1600: Marco Penge
    • +1800: Xander Schauffele

    Gotterup has come a long way since playing his first three holes in 2 over on Thursday, but he’ll have his work cut out for him if he’s going to fend off a world-class leaderboard over the next 36 holes in Scotland.

    Here’s a look at the plays I’m eyeing at the halfway point at Renaissance:

    Draws

    Ludvig Åberg (+850)

    The driver is working. The big positive for Åberg, though, is that everything else is coming along for the ride.

    The Swede is also picking up ground with both his irons and putter, two areas that have slowed him down to a certain extent since his win at Torrey Pines in January. Friday’s round was particularly impressive, as he racked up eight birdies in a 14-hole stretch from Nos. 4-16. He made nearly everything in sight, going from 120th in SG: Putting to seventh on the greens in the second round.


    Ludvig Åberg drains a 20-foot birdie putt at Genesis Scottish Open

    Ludvig Åberg drains a 20-foot birdie putt at Genesis Scottish Open



    If Åberg’s ball-striking continues to trend in the right direction and his putter continues a turnaround, he’s going to factor down the stretch on Sunday.

    Sepp Straka (+2000)

    A closing bogey cooled the Austrian a bit, but he’s still very much in the mix for what would be a third win since January. Straka’s gains have come despite some miserable ball-striking stats, as one of the TOUR’s best iron players is 88th in Strokes Gained: Approach through two rounds.

    Where he has more than made up ground is on and around the greens, as Straka’s short game has been a huge bright spot through two rounds. The thought here is that some regression to the mean will improve his ball-striking stats – eventually, he’ll figure it out with the irons. If he’s able to maintain his work around the greens while doing so, he’ll be circling more than his fair share of birdies.

    Fades

    Chris Gotterup (+400)

    Gotterup has been trending in a positive direction in recent months, but this still feels too short of a price from an outright perspective. While he has nine top-25 finishes in 21 starts on TOUR this season, none have been inside the top 10 – his best result to date as an individual is a T13 in defense of his Myrtle Beach title.

    Friday’s round featured an incredible mix of ball-striking and putting, as Gotterup ranked seventh tee-to-green and third with his putter. It’s a combination that’s unsustainable over the weekend – although admittedly his position on the leaderboard now means he likely only needs one of the two elements to stay at an elite level. Still, on a crowded leaderboard I’ll be looking elsewhere given a victory here would be a significant “level up” performance from the 25-year-old.

    Scottie Scheffler (+900)

    The world No. 1 is usually a front-runner, and I don’t see a weekend comeback in the card given that he’s riding a cold putter (68th in SG: Putting) through two rounds. Scheffler remains in the midst of an incredible campaign, but the demands of links golf have shown a penchant at times for holding him back. With the year’s final major just a few days away, I would have wanted to see more out of the pre-tournament betting favorite to consider a scenario where he jumps past McIlroy, Schauffele and the other 18 names currently above his on the leaderboard at Renaissance.

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