The stage is set at TPC River Highlands for what could be a signature breakthrough, or another agonizing near-miss.

Tommy Fleetwood leads the Travelers Championship at 16-under par after 54 holes, but if history is any indicator, Sunday might not be kind to the 34-year-old Englishman. Fleetwood, a Ryder Cup stalwart and seven-time winner on the DP World Tour, remains winless on the PGA TOUR. And the numbers are staggering: 41 career top-10 finishes without a victory, the most of any player since 1983, including five runner-up finishes, most recently at last year’s RBC Canadian Open where he notably lost in a playoff to Nick Taylor via a 70-foot putt.

Now he holds a three-shot lead heading into the final round, but with local hero Keegan Bradley and Russell Henley hot on his heels, and a fired-up New England crowd possibly poised to rattle the man from Merseyside, Sunday could once again spell heartbreak.

It’s unfortunately hard to bet on fan-favourite Fleetwood with any confidence, even with this large lead. He has all the tools: the swing, the demeanor, the international pedigree. But history has shown time and time again that when the moment gets biggest, something gives or someone rises the occasion to intercept glory from the man they call "Fairway Jesus".

Whether it’s nerves, missed putts or someone simply going lower, Fleetwood has repeatedly found himself on the wrong side of the final-round script. Now add in a potentially hostile New England crowd, many of whom could view Sunday as a Ryder Cup preview, and the pressure only intensifies.

If the fans are rowdy, and the contenders behind him are surging, could that same doubt that’s followed him through 41 top-10s without a trophy breach the surface? Let's take a look at the odds.

Updated odds to win Travelers Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook):

• -200: Tommy Fleetwood (16-under)
• +400: Keegan Bradley (13-under)
• +450: Russell Henley (13-under)
• +2000: Jason Day (12-under)
• +20000: Rory McIlroy (7-under)

Fleetwood made the only eagle of Saturday’s third round, a highlight in a strong bogey-free round of 63, but his past inability to close on American soil looms large. A fast start Sunday is a must, especially with local favorite Bradley charging up the board with a bogey-free 63 of his own. Henley one-upped him with a course-scorching 61, the lowest round of his career, despite the course playing firmer and tougher than earlier in the week.

With Fleetwood sitting at -200, let's look at the two potent chasers.

Keegan Bradley (+400)

Bradley enters Sunday with more than just momentum, he’s carrying the full weight of New England on his shoulders. The Vermont native and soon-to-be Ryder Cup captain is chasing his seventh career PGA TOUR win and will no doubt feel the backing of the home fans as he stares down Fleetwood, a key piece of Europe’s Ryder Cup team and likely opponent (possibly as a player himself) come September at Bethpage Black.

Bradley has been emotional all week, calling this tournament his “home major.” That fire showed in Round 3, where he gained over four shots tee-to-green and drained just under 60 feet of putts. The New England crowd is known for being tough, and their full-throated support of one of their own could shake Fleetwood with chants of "U-S-A" echoing the fairways, giving Bradley the mental edge.

Russell Henley (+450)

Henley went nuclear on Saturday. His 61 was the best of his career and included nine birdies and zero bogeys, as he gained over three strokes on approach and rolled it beautifully. He’s been among the steadiest players on TOUR all year, and if Fleetwood falters even slightly, Henley’s sharp iron game and confidence could make him the last man standing.

Henley has four PGA TOUR wins to his name including a Signature Event already this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard, and isn’t scared to go low on a Sunday. Given how well he’s hitting it and how calm he looked on Saturday, don’t be surprised if he’s the one hoisting the trophy.

So if you’re holding a Fleetwood ticket, buckle up. But if you’re looking to place one more bet before the final round, the value lies in the chasers. If history is any guide, one of them will be the one walking away with the hardware.

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