CROMWELL, Conn. – Scottie Scheffler is -140 to win the Travelers Championshipafter 18 holes. It was a special opening round for Scheffler, who shot 62 – the lowest scorecard he has ever signed in 19 rounds at TPC River Highlands. Scheffler gained seven strokes on the field total (ranked first) and is tied for the lead at 8-under with Austin Eckroat.

So, it’s over.

I’m not ready to hand the defending champ the Travelers trophy yet, but from a betting perspective, taking Scottie at -140 with three rounds to play is not a sound strategy. Too many variables exist with 54 holes to play. If Scheffler sat at that number on Saturday evening, we would bet it 10 times out of 10. But if Scheffler is not a good betting option at this early stage, let’s approach the next three rounds as if he is no longer in the field. No, he didn’t withdraw like Jordan Spieth. DraftKings Sportsbook offers a “without Scheffler” outright betting option. The players in this betting pool will have lower odds than their normal outright value with Scottie in the equation, but let’s be honest, Scheffler has a 50/50 chance of winning (if not higher), and we can’t capitalize on him.

Looking at the performance metrics from Round 1, approach play and putting round out our top 10. The rough at TPC River Highlands is healthy from all of the rain, but accuracy on approach and converting birdie chances is the key. Looking around Scheffler, I see an incredible story brewing. PGA professional David Young caddied for his son, Cameron Young, in the opening round. Young’s regular caddie fell ill, and his father filled in. Young is +1600 in the “without Scheffler” market and was second to Scheffler in Strokes Gained when you combine his iron play and putter. Fresh off two fourth-place finishes (RBC Canadian Open, US Open), Young is back home in the northeast. With seven runner-up finishes in his career, this might be the perfect bet on a Thursday night at the Travelers.

Did I mention Cameron Young shot 59 in Round 3 of last year’s Travelers Championship?

Two guys I’m not going to back after the opening round are Austin Eckroat (+1200without Scheffler) and Wyndham Clark (+1600 without Scheffler). Eckroat’s second-round scoring average is 154th on TOUR. Eckroat has not recorded a top 10 this season and has missed eight cuts in 17 starts. I realize Eckroat will play the weekend in Cromwell, but the chances of him keeping pace with Young and the top of this leaderboard are not backable.

Wyndham Clark’s second-round scoring average doesn’t clear Eckroat by much, as Clark is ranked 133rd in Friday scoring. Clark’s season has been an emotional roller coaster in more ways than one. Similar to Eckroat, Clark has missed a bunch of weekends and only has one top 10 all year, and that was back in March.

Drawing Cameron Young gives us a great chance to win in two ways. Young can take the title outright, or finish runner-up to Scheffler. A dominant Scheffler doesn’t have to ruin our outright fun early in the tournament week. Whether or not David Young continues to caddie for Cameron, or if regular looper Kyle Sterbinsky comes back, I’m betting that a little signature father-son time to start the week is all Young needs to close the deal.