Still time to back Rory McIlroy as Keith Mitchell leads Truist Championship

FLOURTOWN, Pa. – Believe it or not, there’s still time to back Rory McIlroy at the Truist Championship. The current Masters champion started the week as the betting favorite at +400. McIlroy currently sits at +550 and is just five shots back from our leader Keith Mitchell at 12 under. McIlroy was asked after his second round at the Philadelphia Cricket Club how he played.

“Yeah, I felt like today was another sort of scrappy one,” McIlroy said. “I made what I feel are some uncharacteristic mistakes compared to how I’ve played the majority of the year. So just got to try to iron that out over the next couple of days, try to shoot a couple of scores without as many bogeys on the card.”

McIlroy’s admission is clear: He can improve quickly over the weekend. With longer odds on the pre-tournament favorite and fewer holes, I’m still in.

Updated odds to win the Truist Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +320: Keith Mitchell
• +350: Shane Lowry
• +550: Rory McIlroy
• +600: Shane Lowry
• +1200: Collin Morikawa
• +1400: Justin Thomas
• +1600: Patrick Cantlay

Draws

Speaking of good weekend golf, and in addition to my bullish outlook on McIlroy, Sepp Straka (+600) gets better as the week goes on. Straka has the makings of a career campaign in 2025. A win and nine top-15 results in 13 starts. Straka’s consistency comes from the fact he gets better as the tournament goes on.

Over the first 36 holes, Straka’s scoring average ranks 47th on TOUR – but on the weekend that average drops to 26th! Straka is currently ranked second in SG: Putting and third in SG: Approach at the Truist and, according to his trend, he will only get better.

Fades

Sometimes scoring averages are not lower on the weekend. Pay attention to these two examples. Mitchell (+320) leads the TOUR in Thursday scoring by a quarter of a stroke over Scottie Scheffler. Our 36-hole leader, Mitchell is poised to pick up his second PGA TOUR victory. There’s only one problem: he tends to feel a little leaderboard gravity in the closing rounds. Mitchell is ranked 97th on Saturdays and 90th on Sundays for Round 3 and Round 4 scoring average. It’s a tendency that sets off a fade alarm for me every time.

Another player who follows a similar storyline is Shane Lowry (+350). Lowry’s average scoring rank over the final 36 holes is almost double that of his first 36. Where might Lowry’s Saturday(s) go wrong? Off the tee. Lowry’s losing strokes to the field this week driving and he’s hitting 70 percent of his fairways. How can that happen is that he is hitting from well behind his peers. Thirty-six more holes of longer approaches for Lowry will add up, especially when you consider how close some of his competitors are when they approach the same hole.

With the wet weather behind us, the putting surfaces will be ripe for scoring. My draws and fades are ultimately picked because I believe they can make the most birdies. Twenty-four players are within seven shots of the leader, who I’m fading. Get ready for an incredible weekend of golf and weather. After all, with these predictions, it’s always sunny in Philadelphia.

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