Draws & Fades: With wet weather approaching, look for Rory McIlroy to go low at Truist

FLOURTOWN, P.A. – Round 2 tee times have been moved up by a couple of hours to try and avoid the forecasted weather Friday at the Philadelphia Cricket Club. Rain is predicted overnight and throughout most of the day. As a former PGA golf course operator, I can tell you that when the weather’s bad, you always start early. Get as many holes in as you can, when you can.

Keith Mitchell leads the Truist Championship after the opening round, while Collin Morikawa is the new betting favorite. But the topics on the mind of bettors are these: what will more rain do to the course conditions, and how will that factor affect potential wagers heading toward the weekend?

Thankfully, the overnight system is predicted to drop half the amount of precipitation officials expected a couple of days ago. Walking the grounds pre-tournament and following a couple of groups today, the surfaces were soft. You could feel dampness underfoot in the rough and crossing the fairways. I started the week favoring length, wedge play, and putting. More rain is only going to benefit that skill set even more. Sixty-four of 72 players finished the opening round under par. The scoring average was 66.8 on a par-70 scorecard.

Updated odds to win Truist Championship (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +600: Collin Morikawa
• +750: Rory McIlroy
• +800: Keith Mitchell
• +1200: Denny McCarthy
• +1400: Sepp Straka
• +1800: Patrick Cantlay
• +2000: Shane Lowry
• +2200: Keegan Bradley, Akshay Bhatia
• +2500: Justin Thomas, Ludvig Åberg

Keith Mitchell set the course record by FOUR strokes! The previous course record was 65 and held by three players. If they played Thursday, those same three would be tied for 11th place. The reason for framing the situation is to build the best live-betting card we can for the remainder of the Truist Championship. Seven of the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Putting finished at 6 under (T7) or better in Round 1. Those players are where I’m starting to look for my live betting adds. Opening-round results are aligned with our pre-tournament predictions. Putting will now carry more weight as soft conditions will create even more birdie chances.

Earlier in the week, I mentioned driving distance and wedge proximity. Those two traits have also been amplified. Throw all three skills into a betting blender and a couple names pop to watch heading into Round 2. If you love to bet the favorite, Rory McIlroy (+750) lengthened his odds to win the Truist. McIlroy started the week +400. First in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, his 66 was about the highest number he could have carded on Thursday. Betting McIlroy might be fun for some, but let’s dig a little deeper down that odds board and find one or two other soaked sub-par scorers.

Keegan Bradley (+2200) finished the day fifth in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 16th in putting. I believe TPC River Highlands is an excellent comp course for the Wissahickon Course. Captain Bradley has won there and can handle the northeast nature of this front on Friday. If you like a little extra character to your betting storylines, then consider this: A.W. Tillinghast designed the Wissahickon and Bethpage Black. No better way to prove you can join the U.S. Team in the fall than to win on a sister course! Did I happen to mention Bradley won the 2018 BMW Championship on a rain-soaked venue (Aronimink) in Philadelphia as well?

Need one more name to tail in the wet weather? Watch Sam Burns (+4000) keep making birdies. Not many players can convert on the greens like Burns. Sam finished top 25 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach and Putting. Burns’ scorecard displayed five birdies and an eagle. As we head toward the weekend with even softer conditions, keep backing aggressive players. All three of these guys love to attack the hole. That’s what they will need to do, as the winning score in these conditions will surely eclipse 20 under.

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