Draws and Fades: Look to longshot options as gusty winds return to Bay Hill

There were sunny skies and calm breezes Saturday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. But much tougher conditions are expected for the final round at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, and the adjustment in forecast could call for an adjustment to how bettors handicap the in-play options in Orlando.

For the third time in as many days we have a new name at the top of the leaderboard, with Collin Morikawa rolling in a birdie on No. 18 to edge one shot ahead of Russell Henley. Wyndham Clark, who led after the opening round, and overnight leader Shane Lowry both struggled Saturday in the final pairing to fall eight and six shots off the pace, respectively.

Corey Conners and Jason Day sit just behind Henley, but those are the only three players who will begin the final round within five shots of Morikawa as the two-time major champ eyes his first win since the fall of 2023.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +105: Collin Morikawa
• +280: Russell Henley
• +550: Corey Conners
• +1000: Jason Day
• +3500: Tony Finau
• +4000: Michael Kim
• +5000: Rory McIlroy
• +7000: Shane Lowry
• +8000: Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka

Morikawa’s iron play was a thing of beauty Saturday, and he unsurprisingly leads the field in Strokes Gained: Approach through 54 holes. The betting value is nearly zapped at close to even money, though, as his putter has let him down more than a couple times in clutch moments since his most recent victory.

Add to it the gusty weather forecast, with sustained winds in the 10-15 mph range and “gusting to 20 mph” as the leaders play the bulk of their round according to a tournament forecast. Players and commentators alike were already commenting on the difficulty of Bay Hill’s putting surfaces in the third round, as they took on a speed and shine the likes of which we’re used to seeing for major championships. Should the winds kick up close to the forecasted strength, holing anything outside your shadow could prove difficult.

So while Morikawa’s iron play should remain an even bigger strength in blustery conditions, I’m banking on the fact that, well, things might get weird with some unpredictable weather. As a result, I’m looking to a couple longshot options with one round to go:

Draws

Michael Kim (+4000)

Kim is very quietly playing some of the best golf on TOUR over the last month or so. A runner-up at TPC Scottsdale was followed by a pair of T13 results, and last week he was in the final pairing Sunday en route to a T6 finish at PGA National. Now he’s in the mix again, starting the final round T5 and five shots back.

Are many people expecting Kim to shock this elite field for his first win since 2018? No. But is this a tasty price with only one round to go, given he’s chasing only four names? For sure. Kim has been solid with his irons all week, trailing Morikawa but still ranking eighth in the field, and he’s in the mix despite losing strokes on the greens. If the putter steadies, his recent momentum could be enough to carry him to a point where this ticket would be live with a few holes to play – which is all you can ask for at this price.

Shane Lowry (+7000)

If you liked Kim’s price, you’re going to love Lowry’s. Yes, I’m backing a player who was on the fade list after each of the first two rounds, but it’s once again driven by price. Lowry was all sorts of terrible in Round 3, making a pair of double bogeys on Nos. 11 and 13 after some sloppy iron shots that contributed in a big way to his 4-over 76. But he remained in good spirits down the stretch while closing out a disappointing day, and he’s the type of player that could make a climb if the weather becomes a huge factor.

Lowry enjoys playing tough courses, won his lone major in the rain at Royal Portrush and was humming right along after the first two rounds. He has been feast-or-famine at Bay Hill throughout his career, as evidenced by this week’s paradox, but he’s still not entirely out of it. For this price, I’m willing to do a little speculating that Lowry could find his way to something in the 60s and hope the six players ahead of him struggle with the windy conditions.

Fade

Corey Conners (+550)

I advocated for Russell Henley at +5000 after the opening round, so I’m not surprised to see him in the final pairing. Likewise, Morikawa’s strength with his irons is such that it wouldn’t be a total shock if he just laces 4-irons all day and cruises to an easy win while others try to force the issue on a hard course in tough conditions.

The one that I have a tough time seeing as a factor is Conners, who has admittedly had some success at Bay Hill with four straight top-25 finishes (seemingly heading for five) including a third-place result in 2021. He’s also no stranger to windy conditions, with both of his two career TOUR wins coming in San Antonio. But he’s surprisingly done most of his work on the greens, as a putter change has proven fortuitous for the Canadian through 54 holes.

Conners is more well-known for his iron play, and he’s holding up his end of the bargain at fifth in SG: Approach. But he only hit 20 of 36 greens in regulation through the first two rounds, and while that improved Saturday (14 of 18) I wonder how he’ll fare in more difficult conditions. On a day when many players will be missing more than their fair share of greens, I’m not looking to rely on Conners’ short game to deliver a trophy.

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