Another year, another instance where Wyndham Clark is looking to get past Scottie Scheffler at Arnold Palmer's Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Clark finished as a runner-up behind Scheffler last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by MasterCard, albeit five shots adrift. The same 1-2 result played out one week later at THE PLAYERS.

Now both are back in Orlando, Florida. and while Clark paced the 72-man field on a blustery day at Arnie’s place, oddsmakers still favor Scheffler with the defending champ four shots off the lead.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via FanDuel Sportsbook)

• +300: Scottie Scheffler
• +450: Rory McIlroy
• +700: Wyndham Clark
• +1200: Shane Lowry
• +1400: Keegan Bradley
• +1600: Corey Conners, Collin Morikawa
• +1800: Justin Thomas, Ludvig Åberg
• +2000: Patrick Cantlay

Clark’s opening-round performance wasn’t a surprise given his success here last year, but it was a little remarkable given both the conditions and his last-minute caddie swap. Clark’s normal looper, John Ellis, fell sick so Clark turned to Taylor Moore’s normal caddie, Dave Pelekoudas. The pair combined for a stellar round on a day when only 14 of 72 players broke par.

Still, it’s Scheffler who stands out on the odds board, having shot a 1-under 71 to sit T11 in his quest for his third Bay Hill win in the last four years. The world No. 1 remained steady in the windy conditions, but his stat line failed to impress: 26th in Strokes Gained: Approach and a negative SG: Putting.

With Rory McIlroy also firmly in the mix at 2 under, three shots behind Clark, there’s no shortage of in-play options. Clark sits in the lead but feels appropriately priced, given the high ceiling on his performances over the last two years but the difficulty of going wire-to-wire at a place like Bay Hill.

Let’s look at a couple of options further down the board that could provide some value, with the blustery winds from Thursday expected to calm over the next two days:

Draws

Justin Thomas (+1800): Thomas’ start to the tournament couldn’t have gone worse. Two double bogeys left him 4 over through just four holes and near the bottom of the standings. But the two-time major champion turned things around in a big way, playing his next 14 holes in 5 under to get back into red figures.

Thomas led the field in SG: Off-the-Tee and was in the upper quartile in approach play. After playing in the afternoon, he’ll have a short turnaround with an opportunity to build on his burgeoning momentum in the second round. Expect another sub-par score Friday and that these odds will shorten on a player still in search of his first win in nearly three years.

Russell Henley (+5000): This is an opportunity to capitalize on an uncharacteristically rough day for Henley with the irons. Ranking 26th on the season in SG: Approach, Henley was 60th out of 72 players on approach Thursday while leading the field around the green and sitting 19th in SG: Putting. He remains on a heater to start the year, with three top-10 finishes in his last four starts including a T6 result last week at PGA National. He’s sitting at Even, just five shots back and with plenty of time to chase down Clark and others on a course where he finished T4 just last year.

Fades

Scottie Scheffler (+300): As has often been the case with Scheffler over the last year, it’s all about the line. He got as short as +185 during his opening-round 71, but this is still an awfully short number given the caliber of players around (and above) him on the leaderboard. Scheffler is sure to stick around over the subsequent 54 holes, but his stat line didn’t inspire a ton of confidence for a player who has been close this year but has not yet returned to the winner’s circle. This was his breakthrough last year, one that led to a torrent of titles in 2024, but the price is just too short to endorse a bite given he’s roughly at his pre-tournament price.

Shane Lowry (+1200): Lowry was running in opposite directions Thursday, leading the field in SG: Approach while ranking 59th in SG: Off-the-Tee. A bulk of those lost strokes came on the 18th hole, where an errant drive led to one of just two bogeys on the day for Lowry en route to a 3-under 69 that left him tied for second. Lowry has notably been feast-or-famine at Bay Hill over the years, missing four straight cuts with a 67th-place finish before last year’s third-place result. This is a place where the Irishman can often go sideways in a big way, with five different rounds of 75 or above, so I’m not looking at him among those on the first page of the revised outright options.

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