Draws & Fades: Can Knapp time extend through four days at Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches?

The saying in golf goes something like – it’s always hard to back up a super low round. Jake Knapp will get to put that to the test at the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches.

A favorite of the Golfbet team after taking on our recent one-putt challenge, Knapp put on a clinic to smash the PGA National Resort (The Champion Course) record with a 12-under 59 – becoming just the 15th sub-60 round in PGA TOUR history. He had a putt for eagle on the 18th hole that could have seen just the second 58 in TOUR history.

It was good enough for a four-shot lead over Daniel Berger, Russell Henley and Sami Valimaki who each shot 63 to share second. Former champions Rickie Fowler and Keith Mitchell were joined by Sam Ryder, Davis Riley, J.J. Spaun and Jesper Svensson in a tie for fifth at 7-under.

Of the 14 previous sub-60 rounds on TOUR, only five of them were part of a winning week, the last by Brandt Snedeker at the 2018 Wyndham Championship. Interestingly, his 59 did come in the first round. This is the fifth time the 59 came in Round 1 with Paul Goydos (second, 2010 John Deere Classic), Justin Thomas (win, 2017 Sony Open in Hawaii), Snedeker (win, 2018 Wyndham Championship) and Hayden Springer (T7, 2024 John Deere Classic) having varying success.

But before we can think about Sunday, we need to think about Friday, as we decide whether Knapp’s +360 odds to win via FanDuel Sportsbook is something to bite on now, or perhaps if it’s a wait-and-see if the backup round is as dominant.

The current odds via FanDuel Sportsbook are as follows:

• +360: Jake Knapp (12-under, first)
• +750: Russell Henley (8-under, T2)
• +750: Daniel Berger (8-under, T2)
• +1800: Rickie Fowler (7-under, T5)
• +1800: Keith Mitchell (7-under, T5)
• +1800: J.J. Spaun (7-under, T5)

I am not prepared to say Knapp won’t win this tournament. But, with a heavy heart, at this stage, I do think you need to fade his current odds.

Fade

Jake Knapp +360: As mentioned above, this isn’t fading Knapp from winning this tournament; this is fading these odds because chances are, after the second round, we might have something a little juicier. History is against him. Only David Duval, Stuart Appleby and Jim Furyk’s 58 came in the final rounds so we have 11 other occasions to compare the round following the 59 to work with.

Al Geiberger went 59-72, Chip Beck was 59-68, Goydos was 59-68, Furyk was 59-69, Thomas was best on the ground with 59-64, Adam Hadwin carded 59-70, Snedeker 59-67, Kevin Chappell 59-73, Scottie Scheffler 59-67, Cam Young 59-66 and Springer 59-71.

All in all, that’s a spread of five to 14 shots worse in the round immediately after at an average of 9.6! So if we assume Knapp will regress somewhat tomorrow having led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Approach on Thursday, then we should see some of the chase pack cut into or even catch his lead. That will lead to better odds heading to the weekend and with it a chance to decide whether to back Knapp over the last 36.

Draws

Daniel Berger +750: You don’t think I’m going to bail on my pre-tournament pick after he starts with a 63 do you?! Berger has finished in the top five here three times before and ranked fourth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Total and 14th in Bogey Avoidance. Now look, I have to be fully transparent… he got there on Thursday via his putter, not usually his strength. Needing only 24 putts and making 121 feet on the greens saved an unusually poor day with the driver. But I know he will dial in the driver overnight on the range and if he keeps making putts, he will be a force.

“I thought I played well, but then someone shot 59. Clearly the course was not the old Bear Trap that we're used to. But still a great start to the event and just got to continue to do what I did today for the next three days,” Berger said.

As for his plan on Friday? “I guess make birdies because it's playing soft and short, and the greens are perfect. Just keep doing what I did.”

Keith Mitchell +1800: Mitchell is the 2019 winner of this event and has two other top 10s in his last two appearances here. With SG: Tee-to-Green being a huge part of this week, Mitchell is the guy who routinely measures high in this metric. He’s 12th after the first round in the all-important stat and 16th on the season while many others above him on the leaderboard are playing above their season ranks.

Russell Henley +750: A winner here in 2014, Henley is very well poised after round one. He also has two top 10s from his last three trips to PGA National Resort and should be amongst it Sunday when the whips are cracking. Hit 17 of 18 greens in regulation on Thursday to lead the field in his bogey-free effort. If it comes down to making putts the other contenders will be keeping a close eye on Henley.

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