PGA National is a tee-to-green paradise because it’s pretty hard to recover from multiple trips to the water. I know, I know … thanks, Captain Obvious.

But it still needs to be pointed out that the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches is one of the most heavily reliant TOUR events on the Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green statistic. Nine of the last 10 winners were inside the top five on their way to victory, with the other, Rickie Fowler, needing to marry up ranking 11th with a blitz of made putts.

This is mainly because 15 of the 18 holes feature water in play, meaning one mis-timed swing can lead to a big number. And while there was a softening of the golf course in recent years it appears as if the screws are being turned a little more this year. In July of last year, the fairways were narrowed with a total of 4 acres of fairway and approach turf reduced.

While we are looking at the current SG: Tee-to-Green numbers we can also delve in deeper on a specific distance, with over a quarter of approach shots coming from between 175-200 yards, including the two par 3s on the infamous "The Bear Trap."

Those who can add an extra birdie or two from this distance, or in some cases, just not mess up, will find themselves separating on the leaderboard. It is no surprise to see recent Cognizant Classic contenders Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka so high in the rankings on TOUR for proximity from this distance.

And an old faithful on a course with lots of trouble is finding those players who, by nature, avoid bogeys. Included inside the top 15 on TOUR in Bogey Avoidance currently are Daniel Berger, Nicolai Højgaard, Denny McCarthy, Kevin Roy, Bud Cauley and Keith Mitchell among others.

Chris Kirk was tied for fewest bogeys two years ago on the way to winning, and the last 11 winners average sixth in the metric on the way to victory. Six of the last nine winners were inside the top four of Bogey Avoidance and Austin Eckroat was eighth last year.

There are also "nature" variables to be wary of this week. First, we are returning to Bermuda grass after a West Coast Swing full of mostly poa annua. While normally I advise leaning heavily into current form on golfers, this is a week you can move out of that comfort zone because of the chance of environment if you so choose. And secondly, wind.

The wild world of wind forecasts can be tough to navigate, and also somewhat unreliable in advance, but some red flags have up come up ahead of this week. In the early part of the week the weather forecast is showing the strongest gusts will hit the late/early wave a little stronger than most as a heavy wind session is set to hit the area overnight Thursday and the beginnings and end of that could hit those on course.

While on Monday, the difference was expected to be very noticeable, by Tuesday the forecast had already softened enough for me to worry less but still be wary and vigilant. In terms of the chalk on the betting boards, Shane Lowry (+2000), Sungjae Im (+2200) and Taylor Pendrith (+2800) are potentially on the tougher side of the winds, with Russell Henley (+2500), Sepp Straka (+2800) and Daniel Berger (+2800) on the potentially calmer side. Keep an eye on this.

Benny's betting card

OUTRIGHTS

Daniel Berger (+2500)

With current form and three previous top fives at PGA National coming together plus the fact he’s fourth on TOUR in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in SG: Total and 14th in Bogey Avoidance have me thinking Berger is getting closer and closer to joining the PGA TOUR five-win club.

Nicolai Højgaard (+6000)

Quietly coming off a top 10 last week and is being slept on in this field because of one terrible outing here a few years ago. At third in SG: Approach, and 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, plus 14th in Bogey Avoidance and seventh in SG: Total, his numbers are popping. His “weakness” is off the tee but still right around TOUR average so if he keeps it out of the water, he will contend (wind pending). I expect he will lead my Sleepers column this week, the slot where Aldrich Potgieter lived last week and almost came through in the biggest way!

PROPS

Shane Lowry Top 10 (+250)

Call this my bank builder for the week, as one of the most solid performers on TOUR gets back out on the course that he has come so close at many times. Recent runner-up at Pebble Beach and 7-of-7 in made cuts here, including three straight top-fives. Hoping the draw doesn’t discount him. Pops in Proximity in 175 to 200-yard shots at third on TOUR.

Sepp Straka Top 20 (+140)

Another more conservative pick on a week where a lot can go wrong. But Straka is a better player than when he won here and comes back to a happy place having already won this season. Seems like a no-brainer to have him somewhere on your card.

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