Is the price too short on the surging defending champs at Zurich Classic?
5 Min Read

Written by Brady Kannon
The story of the day at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans has to be defending champions, Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele, shooting a 9-under 63 in Friday's Foursome (Alternate Shot) format. In handicapping this tournament prior to Thursday's start, I said all along that we can expect Friday and Sunday scores to be much higher than Thursday and Saturday - when they are playing the Four-balls (Best Ball) format. Not the case with the Cantlay/Shauffele team, as they would have beaten all but six teams of 80 that teed it up on Thursday - with their Friday score. Think about it. Player A hits a tee ball, Player B hits the approach, alternating back and forth and yet Cantlay and Schauffele recorded seven birdies, not a single bogey, and an eagle. Team chemistry and complimentary skill sets were two areas of the handicap that I considered this week, and the defending champs seemed to have taken that to another level on Friday in what truly for them was, the Big Easy.
Now, does that set them up as a fade heading into the weekend? We'll get to that in a minute.
Updated odds to win Zurich Classic (via BetMGM Sportsbook)
+275: Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele
+400: Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell
+450: Wyndham Clark/Beau Hossler
+1200: Sam Ryder/Doc Redman
+1600: Taylor Moore/Matthew NeSmith
+2800: Billy Horschel/Sam Burns, Kurt Kitayama Taylor Montgomery, Sahith Theegala/Justin Suh
+3300: David Lipsky/Aaron Rai
+3500: Si Woo Kim/Tom Kim
We knew that thundershowers were in the forecast for Friday and sure enough, they came and delayed the action for about two and a half hours at TPC Louisiana. I personally wondered how this would affect play - with Foursomes typically being the more difficult of the two formats. For many, the softer golf course made it far easier. In Zurich Classic editions of the past, going back to 2017 when the team format was introduced, we saw the Alternate Shot rounds produce scores either very few strokes under par, even par, or even a few to several shots over par. The average cut line since then has been seven under. In the Friday Foursome format this year, 24 teams shot 4 under or better and the cut line landed at 10 under. Prior to the tournament beginning, I saw a proposition bet on the winning score, allowing bettors to take Under or Over 263.5, meaning 24.5 strokes under par. If things continue the way they have gone so far, the winning score looks to be substantially less than 263.5. Last year, Cantlay and Schauffele won it at 29 under. Maybe this year we'll get to 30.
Here's a look at some plays and angles I’m eyeing at the halfway point, as we return to Four-Balls format for the third round (odds via BetMGM):
Draws
Wyndham Clark & Beau Hossler (+450)
When taking my initial glance at the teams earlier this week, this team was the first to jump out at me as being very complementary as far as each other’s skill sets. Clark is a bomber off the tee and can dial in
his irons, while Hossler relies heavily on his short game. So far, it looks to be a great match as they lead the golf tournament – yet aren’t being priced as the favorite to go on and win it. They lead two teams by a shot and five teams by two shots. If they can come even close to repeating what they have done for the first two days, they ought to have a great chance to go wire-to-wire.
Troy Merritt & Robert Streb (+8000)
Pre-tournament, I saw this team priced anywhere from +10000 to +22500 to win it all. The sharp money that drove this price down seems to have been on to something with this squad. Both players have played this event a combined nine times. Streb even finished runner-up back in 2014 when this was a stroke-play event. Merritt is a very accurate driver of the golf ball and Streb is especially good on approach from 125 yards and in. That alone is a strong combination in an event like this. They are only four shots back and at +8000, it feels like they are still being doubted by the market. I think they make for a good long shot and I expect them to be in the hunt.
Fades
Patrick Cantlay & Xander Schauffele (+275)
I feel this price is both reactionary to today’s results and based off of name recognition. And not necessarily just by the oddsmakers, but more so the fact that the sportsbooks know this is how the majority of the betting public will view it and put that view into action at the window. I also don’t think Cantlay and Schauffele will necessarily go away and drop precipitously down the leaderboard. They’re probably too good to not at least hang around, but I don’t believe they will ultimately win it and I definitely don’t want to play it at less than +300. Finally, when they return to Foursomes on Sunday, I find it hard to believe they will come close to repeating the near perfection they found on Friday.
Sean O'Hair & Brandon Matthews (+4000)
It is impressive what this duo has done so far but I’m not banking on it getting a whole lot better over the weekend. Sean O’Hair is ranked 427th in the OWGR and hasn’t won on TOUR in 12 years. Matthews is ranked 365th in the world and has already missed nine cuts this season to go along with three WDs. Even during Friday’s softer and obviously favorable scoring conditions, O’Hair and Matthews shot a relatively pedestrian 3 under par. It is probably telling that they are only two shots off the pace but are still a good-sized long shot at +4000 – and that might even be too light.
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