Variance, thy name is Foursomes.

The scores were low Thursday at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Really, really low, as we’ve come to expect when equipping a pair of PGA TOUR pros with the options afforded by Four-ball format. The birdies were flying with great frequency, as 79 of the 80 teams broke par at TPC Louisiana. An 11-under 61 leads the way, and 13 pairs shot 63 or better.

Now the script flips, and not just because tournament officials are bumping up second-round tee times because of expected weather. Friday’s cut day brings with it a switch to Foursomes (alternate shot) format. Gone is the safety net of a bad shot (or hole) being bailed out by an accurate partner. Each swing has consequences, and there will be a wide variety of scores as a result.

Updated odds to win Zurich Classic (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+600: Sungjae Im/Keith Mitchell

+650: Wyndham Clark/Beau Hossler

+1200: Patrick Cantlay/Xander Schauffele, Sahith Theegala/Justin Suh

+1400: Billy Horschel/Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick/Alex Fitzpatrick

+1600: Max Homa/Collin Morikawa, David Lipsky/Aaron Rai

Consider that last year at this event, three teams shot 63 in the opening round and missed the cut. Two others opened with 61, only to make an early exit after stumbling into Foursomes pitfalls. Another team opened with 67 in Four-ball, falling well off the pace in the process, only to rebound with a Friday 68 in the more difficult format to make the weekend.

It’s all to suggest that taking a freeze-frame of the current leaderboard may be a tad bit premature. Changes are coming to the standings, and in-play options boil down to which teams may be overvalued after a strong single round – and which ones may be primed to rebound from a slow start.

Here’s a look at some of my top mid-tournament angles, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Si Woo Kim/Tom Kim (T-43, -6, +3300)

Did you pass on the short pre-tournament odds on the defending champs? Congrats, you now have an opportunity to grab Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay at +1200, a multiple of their starting number. Their six-shot deficit after a slow start is hardly insurmountable, but I’ll side with a team that finished one shot better on Thursday but now sits at nearly triple the price.

The duo that teamed so memorably at the Presidents Cup didn’t light things on fire at TPC Louisiana, but they’re also still firmly in the mix. Foursomes format could be an area where their established rapport could yield some dividends, and their ball-striking numbers (ninth and 29th this season on TOUR) put them in the upper echelon of this field.

If their tee-to-green game is up to their collective standard, they’ll head into the weekend facing a much smaller deficit than five shots – and their in-play price will reflect it.

Erik Van Rooyen/MJ Daffue (T-14, -8, +6600)

This one is more speculative but once again a chance to buy in on a pair of countrymen, as the South Africans opened with a 64 to get off on the right foot. Van Rooyen is a past winner on TOUR and Daffue, once a Monday qualifier, has found his footing in recent weeks: three finishes of T-21 or better in his last five starts, including penal layouts like PGA National and Innisbrook where solid ball-striking was required.

Daffue eagled the par-5 11th while Van Rooyen added three birdies on his own ball, the sort of shared responsibility that implies some consistency can be expected in the more difficult format. They may not have the name recognition of some other pairings in the field, but we’ve seen before what playing for a shared flag can produce in this event (and format), so don’t be surprised if these two become the latest in that line.

Fades

Matt Fitzpatrick/Alex Fitzpatrick (T-3, -10, +1400)

It’s time for younger brother to shine. The English duo got off to a stronger than expected start Thursday, combining for 10 birdies including five from Alex. But the shift to Foursomes will put even more pressure on the world No. 705, as he’ll need to keep the team out of trouble on his tee shots and capitalize on the birdie opportunities provided by the U.S. Open champion.

The camaraderie is certainly there for the brothers, and it doesn’t hurt that Matt is coming off a riveting playoff win at the RBC Heritage and clearly in form. But too much of their current price is derived from Matt’s form and reputation heading into a round where he will only hit half the shots. Regression is likely coming for Team Fitz unless Alex outperforms when the stakes are at their highest (until Sunday). Theirs was a pleasant surprise in the opening round, but not one I’m expecting to be sustainable.

David Lipsky/Aaron Rai (T-3, -10, +1600)

It was another fast start for Rai, who took FRL honors last week at the RBC Heritage and got to double digits alongside Lipsky Thursday in the Big Easy. The question, now, is where he’ll go from here: Rai opened with a 63 at Harbour Town but then failed to break 70 in any of the final

three rounds, ultimately finishing T-48. He hasn’t finished inside the top 10 since the Houston Open in the fall, while Lipsky has largely been a non-factor since a T-4 finish at the Sony Open in January.

The two were ham-and-egg specialists Thursday, piling up eight birdies and an eagle, but only one of those birdies came from Lipsky. A lopsided stat line won’t stand up to the pressures of Foursomes, so don’t be surprised if these two ultimately end up behind Max Homa and Collin Morikawa, who currently sit four shots behind them but on equal footing (+1600) on the odds board.

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