The 2025 PGA TOUR season may have officially wrapped, but the golf calendar continues. This week, the spotlight shifts to the Hero World Challenge, a 20-man invitational hosted by Tiger Woods at Albany Golf Club in The Bahamas. It’s always a different kind of week: 72 holes, no cut, no FedExCup points on the line. Just pride, world-class golf and a $5 million purse with a cool $1 million going to the winner.

Naturally, the conversation begins with Scottie Scheffler. The world No. 1 rolls into The Bahamas looking to complete the rare three-peat after cruising to a six-shot win last year. His 2024 price around +300 felt short, but it proved more than justified by Sunday afternoon.

This time around, his number has been slashed almost in half. Scheffler sits at +160 to win at FanDuel Sportsbook and sits at an eye-popping -370 to finish inside the top five. That tells you everything about where expectations are. The closest name behind him is Robert McIntryre (+1100), followed by Wyndham champion Cameron Young (+1300).

With a field this small, there isn’t much in the way of big-priced longshots. Wyndham Clark and Andrew Novak share the longest odds on the board at +4500.

Albany is an Ernie Els design that rewards great ball-strikers. Wind could play a factor this week, and it’s always worth keeping an eye on the forecast. As it stands, nothing overly dramatic is expected.

Water is in play on five holes, and the course is guarded by 52 bunkers, many of which are massive and will often come into play. The Bermuda greens aren’t typical oversized resort-style complexes, and they don’t require magician-level putting to contend — ball striking carries the most weight here.

The defining feature of this course is its layout: a 7,449-yard par 72 with five par 5s and five par 3s, including three of each on the front side. That puts a premium on par-3 and par-5 scoring.

The blueprint this week is pretty straightforward. Great ball-strikers who feast on par 5s, play par 3s well, and can get hot on Bermuda greens.

Key course metrics:

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Proximity: 150-175 yards
• Proximity: 220-225 yards
• Birdie or Better Gained
• Course History
• Strokes Gained: Putting (Bermuda)
• Par-5 Scoring
• Par-3 Scoring

Cameron Young (+1300) to win

Scheffler is going to be awfully tough to beat this week. He’s finished runner-up here in back-to-back years (2021 and 2022), then backed it up with consecutive wins (2023 and 2024). In four career starts at the Hero World Challenge, he hasn’t finished worse than second. That’s an insane dominance of a single tournament.

Still, at +140, it’s a tough number to justify. Rather than chase a price that small, I’d rather build a card around the names capable of trading punches with Scheffler and being in a position to clip him late in the weekend if he blinks.

Which leads up a little further down the board.

Young (+1300) is just the golfer in the field to usurp the Hero king.

Young has all the necessary tools to dominate this week. With five par 5s on the course, I weighed par-5 scoring heavily in the model, and no one grades out better. Young ranks first in the field in that category over the last 36 rounds. He’s also second from 200-225 yards and seventh from 150-175, two key proximity buckets at Albany. From a ball striking standpoint, he’s been incredible, second only to Scheffler. He’s also a streaky golfer who can fill it up when he gets going, sitting second in Birdie or Better Gained over the last 36 rounds.

His course history has both ends of the spectrum. Young finished third in his debut here, flashing instant success and comfort, but followed it with 15th and 13th the next two years. In 2023, he struggled off the tee and couldn’t scramble well enough to keep him close to the top. In 2024, he didn’t putt well.

That version of Young feels long gone. His 2025 campaign was the strongest of his young career, and the back half of the season was a legitimate breakout. He finished T4 at the U.S. Open, picked up his first PGA TOUR win at the Wyndham, and added a top five at the FedEx St. Jude the very next week.

Young is now a winner on the PGA TOUR and should be considered a force anywhere he plays.

Jordan Spieth (+290) to finish Top 5

This feels like a pivotal season ahead for Jordan Spieth. Coming back from wrist surgery, there were fair questions about whether a dip in form might be coming. The results varied — four top-10 finishes, a handful of missed cuts and stretches where he looked like the contender everyone knows, mixed with weeks where he never found a rhythm. Even Spieth admitted it took time to feel right physically.

After his last start at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in August, he finally shut it down. That break gave him time to fully recover and address the parts of his game that were costing him strokes.

The offseason focus was on his game, and Spieth says he’s finally healthy and stronger than he’s been in a long time. Refining his swing mechanics was a major priority. It’s not like his ball-striking was poor, but there were too many loose swings, and that's what he set out to clean up.

Now he arrives this week as one of the true wild cards in the field. Not many bring in a richer history in this event. Speith won the Hero in 2014, back at Isleworth, and he’s stacked multiple top-five finishes at Albany since. He didn’t tee it up here last year, but the season prior, he finished sixth despite losing strokes off the tee and on the greens.

A healthy Spieth is a different animal. If he’s truly back to full strength, the door is wide open for him to make noise.

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