Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler heavy betting favorite to win third straight Hero World Challenge title
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Scottie Scheffler makes birdie to defend title at Hero World Challenge
Written by Mike Glasscott
Two-time defending champion Scottie Scheffler is once again the man to beat in the exclusive, 20-man field at the Hero World Challenge at the Albany Golf Club in the Bahamas.
Scheffler, making his fifth Hero World Challenge appearance, has never finished worse than second place at Albany and is a whopping +160 favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook to win three in a row. The reigning PGA Championship winner and Champion Golfer of the Year led the PGA TOUR in wins (six) and owns an active streak of 15 consecutive top-10 results. During his march to a record-setting six-shot victory on the Ernie Els design in 2024, the Texan matched the tournament scoring record of 25-under (263). In 16 career rounds at Albany, he posted 14 loops in the 60s and owns a scoring average of 67.25. A third consecutive victory would make him the winningest player since the event moved to the Bahamas in 2015. Scheffler is returning to official action for the first time since playing the Ryder Cup at the end of September.
The second choice for oddsmakers, world No. 7 Robert MacIntyre (+1100), made his tournament debut in 2024 and cashed a check for solo seventh. Another elite ball-striker, the Scotsman turned heads by finishing second at the U.S. Open and T7 at The Open. He picked up his first win of the season in October at the Alfred Dunhill Championship in Scotland. Familiar with handling his business in the breeze, he also excelled in the desert, cashing T9 in Abu Dhabi, followed by a check for T8 at the DP World Tour Championship three weeks ago.
Big-hitting Cameron Young (+1300) conquered the Wyndham Championship in the final regular-season event for his first victory on TOUR. He continued his excellent run of form throughout the FedExCup Playoffs, earning solo fifth place at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, a share of 11th place at the BMW Championship, and shared fourth at the TOUR Championship at East Lake. Toss in T9 at the Procore Championship before the Ryder Cup, and he’s earned top 11 money in five consecutive events. Making his fourth consecutive start, his best payday came on debut in 2022, solo third, his only top-12 result.
A victory this week for five-time TOUR winner Sam Burns (+1600) would be his first since the spring of 2023. An elite putter, he ranked first in SG: Putting in 2025. Burns' best result on the 4,500-square-foot TifEagle Bermuda greens at Albany was T3 on debut in 2021. Over his next three visits, just four of his last 12 rounds are in the 60s and his last three starts have not hit the top 11.
Making his debut, U.S. Open champ J.J. Spaun (+1600) is the second-highest-ranked player in the field this week. Spaun, who also qualified for his first Ryder Cup team, knocked off the fall rust when he cashed T11 at the World Wide Technology Championship in early November. Ranked fifth in SG: Approach and eighth in SG: Tee to Green, he shouldn’t have any trouble keeping up on the 7,449-yard layout.
Fresh off a $2.1 million payday on Black Friday at The Skins Game, nobody is riding more momentum into the Bahamas than Keegan Bradley (+1700). The Ryder Cup captain, who finished fifth here in 2024, continues to feast from tee to green, currently ranked ninth on TOUR. A victory this week would not erase the memories from Bethpage Black, but it would make the holidays merrier.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1900) joins Scheffler as the only players in the field to have won the Hero World Challenge on this layout. The Japanese star lifted the trophy in the second edition in 2016, earned T5 money in defense, and cashed T18 in his final start in 2018. He returns in 2025 healthy and in form. He cashed T20 at the Baycurrent Classic in his homeland in October, followed by T7 at the Genesis Championship in late October. Two weeks ago, he quietly cashed T5 at the Dunlop Phoenix.
Recently a winner on the DP World Tour in Abu Dhabi, Aaron Rai (+1900) owns two podium paydays in his previous three worldwide starts. The Englishman shared third at Wentworth in September before lifting the trophy in the desert last month. Making his debut in 2024, he did not break 70 in four loops at the Albany Club and cashed T14. The 2024 Wyndham Championship winner does not have a problem finding fairways or GIR. His putter will need to cooperate to contend this week.
Here's a look at the odds for the rest of the 20-man field, via FanDuel:
- +2200: Alex Noren, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose
- +2500: Sepp Straka, Corey Conners, Akshay Bhatia, Harris English
- +2700: Chris Gotterup
- +3000: Brian Harman
- +3300: Billy Horschel
- +4000: Wyndham Clark, Andrew Novak
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